Iran

The live 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Iran’s territory is 59.4%, a critical risk. Iran’s history of revolution, internal unrest, repression, factional rivalry, and repeated confrontation with external powers leaves substantial pathways to new domestic armed violence or a new territorial attack. Economic pressure and institutional concentration around the security establishment further heighten the consequences of political rupture.

Recent reporting describes an active U.S.-Iran conflict, including U.S. strikes on three Iranian oil tankers after Iranian ballistic-missile attacks targeted U.S. naval vessels. The Strait of Hormuz remains the principal flashpoint; Iran says it may shift from a defensive to an offensive posture, while the United States, Israel, the EU, and potentially South Korea are involved in pressure or military decisions. These developments are context for, but do not themselves constitute, a new onset on Iranian territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether the current interstate confrontation remains contained or produces attacks on Iran’s mainland, regime fragmentation, or sustained armed resistance by domestic actors. Risk would rise most clearly through direct strikes on Iranian territory, a breakdown in central security control, or organized domestic rebellion; credible de-escalation around Hormuz and a durable U.S.-Iran agreement would lower the likelihood of a new onset.