All countries

Silfio country intelligence

Iran

Critical risk27.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Iran flag

Iran facts

Population

92.42M

GDP

$362.68B

Currency

IRR

Capital

Tehran

Land area

1.65M km²

Official languages

Persian (Farsi)

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Iran

MARKET

Conflict probability

27.5%

Model base probability

11.7%

Risk category

Critical

Strategic reasoning

  • The structural model baseline of ~11.7% reflects long-term risk but does not capture the current sharp escalation in hostilities and political instability.
  • High-volume prediction markets show a 30% chance of a US invasion of Iran before the end of 2026, which is a direct interstate armed conflict onset on Iranian soil, significantly above baseline.
  • Markets also assign a 15% probability to a coup attempt by year-end, indicating elevated internal conflict risk.
  • Multiple markets show high probabilities of Iran military action against Gulf states in the near term (some above 50-80%), reflecting a volatile security environment that could trigger new conflict on Iranian territory.

Critical indicators

  • US launches multiple strikes inside Iran following Iranian attacks killing US soldiers in Jordan (July 2026).
  • Prediction market assigns 30% chance of US invasion of Iran before end of 2026.
  • Prediction market assigns 15% chance of Iranian coup attempt by end of 2026.
  • Iran military actions against Gulf states predicted with high near-term probabilities, indicating regional escalation risks.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Iran

Updated July 20, 2026

www.aljazeera.com · 2 days ago

Iran war updates: US launches strikes after killing of soldiers in Jordan | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

These were the updates from US-Israel war on Iran as well as Israel's attacks on Gaza and Lebanon from July 18, 2026.

Read source

www.cnn.com · 2 days ago

Iran’s hardliners warn of a ‘coup’ as US truce comes under pressure | CNN

Hardline factions in Iran believe that instead of avenging the late supreme leader’s killing, Iranian officials have surrendered by signing an agreement with the US.

Read source

www.nytimes.com · 3 days ago

Iran War Updates: Bridges and Water Plants Hit as Strikes Stretch to 7th Straight Day - The New York Times

Overnight and into Friday, Iran reported U.S. strikes on infrastructure that can serve civilian purposes and has targeted similar sites in Gulf countries that host American bases. In the afternoon, the U.S. military announced a new round of attacks on Iran.

Read source