Nepal

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Nepal is 5.3%, representing a high risk. The principal long-run factors are Nepal’s history of civil war, persistent political contestation, uneven state capacity, and socioeconomic pressures that can make mobilisation by armed or extremist groups difficult to contain. The 1996–2006 Maoist insurgency remains an important precedent, although the peace process and subsequent political integration reduced the likelihood of a return to nationwide conflict.

Recent reporting provides little evidence of an immediate escalation. On 17 October, Nepal Army, Nepal Police, and Armed Police Force personnel conducted ceremonial drills at Tundikhel in Kathmandu during Dashain, indicating visible state security coordination rather than reported combat. No prediction markets were available for Nepal, and no current report identifies a major armed-group mobilisation or cross-border attack reaching Nepalese territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether political dissatisfaction or localised unrest could acquire organised armed leadership, particularly if institutions fail to manage a severe crisis. Risk would rise with sustained clashes, the emergence of an organised insurgent faction, or attacks on security forces; credible political accommodation, effective policing, and continued integration of former combatants would lower the likelihood of a new onset.