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Silfio country intelligence

Nepal

Low risk2.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Nepal flag

Nepal facts

Population

29.62M

GDP

$45.49B

Currency

NPR

Capital

Kathmandu

Land area

147.18K km²

Official languages

Nepali

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Nepal

NEWS

Conflict probability

2%

Model base probability

1.7%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Nepal, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Current news highlights intense conflict and instability in the Middle East (US-Iran war, internal Iranian political strife), but no direct or proximate threats to Nepal.
  • Nepal is not mentioned in any reports of internal unrest, insurgency, or interstate conflict risk.
  • However, regional instability in South Asia (India-China military ties, Southeast Asia military modernization) and global geopolitical tensions could indirectly elevate risk marginally.

Critical indicators

  • Escalation of US-Iran conflict with strikes and casualties in the Middle East.
  • Regional military modernization and geopolitical tensions in South and Southeast Asia.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Nepal

Updated July 20, 2026

livemint.com · 1 day ago

Q1 results FY27 to US-Iran war, FII flows: Top five triggers that may dictate the Indian stock market this week | Stock Market News

Stock market today: Benchmark indices registered solid weekly gains, with the Nifty 50 rising about 0.53% to end at 24,334.30. While some of the global triggers continue this week, read on to know what are the fresh factors to watch out for this week.

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thediplomat.com · 2 days ago

The Intensifying Geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization

At a time of growing regional turbulence, nations across the region are seeking to equip themselves with more and better armaments.

Read source

edition.cnn.com · 2 days ago

Iran’s hardliners warn of a ‘coup’ as US truce comes under pressure | CNN

Hardline factions in Iran believe that instead of avenging the late supreme leader’s killing, Iranian officials have surrendered by signing an agreement with the US.

Read source