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Silfio country intelligence

Bhutan

Minimal risk0.8% annual probabilitystable trend
Bhutan flag

Bhutan facts

Population

796.68K

GDP

$3.58B

Currency

BTN

Capital

Thimphu

Land area

38.39K km²

Official languages

Dzongkha

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Bhutan

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.8%

Model base probability

0.6%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Bhutan, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Bhutan itself is not mentioned in any news related to conflict or instability; the news focuses heavily on Middle East tensions, particularly US-Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Bhutan is a small Himalayan kingdom with no direct involvement or geographic proximity to the Middle East conflicts; no signs of domestic unrest or external threats are reported.
  • However, the structural model likely underestimates near-term risk by design, and regional military modernization and global geopolitical turbulence (noted in Southeast Asia) could indirectly elevate risk marginally.

Critical indicators

  • Continued US-Iran military escalation and Gulf region instability.
  • Southeast Asia military modernization amid growing regional turbulence.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Bhutan

Updated July 20, 2026

spacedaily.com · 3 days ago

Bhutan’s king voluntarily gave up absolute power and turned his kingdom into a democracy — but many of his people begged him not to, trusting the monarchy more than the politicians who would replace it

In 2008, the ruler of a Himalayan kingdom of roughly 600,000 people did something almost no monarch has done willingly. Jigme Singye Wangchuck, Bhutan's

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aljazeera.com · 1 day ago

What to expect after the US reimposes naval blockade on Iran’s ports? | Energy News | Al Jazeera

Pressure is expected to build on the Iranian public, as well as global energy markets due to the US blockade.

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cnbc.com · 2 days ago

Iraq and Syria sign agreement to restore oil pipeline that would provide alternative to Strait of Hormuz

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is visiting the U.S. this week. He met with President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

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