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Silfio country intelligence · MDV
Maldives
0.5% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country. Existing conflicts are assessed through scenario analysis.
Population
529.68K
GDP
$7.74B
Currency
MVR
Capital
Malé
Land area
300 km²
Official languages
Maldivian
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in the Maldives is 0.5%, a minimal risk. The country has limited military capacity, small and geographically dispersed communities, and no recent history of sustained civil war or insurgency. Political competition and institutional tensions have periodically produced unrest, but these have generally remained below the threshold of organized armed conflict.
Recent reporting reviewed provides no specific indication of an armed escalation on Maldivian territory. The principal domestic actors are the government, security services, opposition parties, and politically mobilized supporters; none is currently identified as waging sustained armed violence. No prediction market is available for the Maldives.
The largest uncertainty is whether a severe political crisis, economic shock, or security-service split could transform episodic unrest into organized violence. Risk would rise most clearly with armed defections, attacks by organized domestic groups, or sustained clashes involving security forces; it would remain contained if political disputes continue to be managed through elections, courts, and policing.
Strategic reasoning
- The Maldives has experienced coups, attempted coups, and serious political confrontations, but no sustained internal armed conflict in the modern period. This history supports a non-zero risk while the absence of entrenched insurgent organizations keeps the probability minimal.
- The strongest stabilising factor is the continued central role of state security institutions and political processes in managing disputes. A major rupture among those institutions would be the clearest escalation pathway, distinct from protests or isolated clashes.
Critical indicators
- In November 1988, an attempted coup involving foreign-backed gunmen briefly seized parts of Malé before Indian military intervention restored the government. It demonstrates that a sudden armed challenge is possible, but also that such episodes have not developed into a durable conflict.
- The 2018 election and subsequent transfer of power showed that major political competition can still produce an institutional transition rather than armed confrontation. This remains relevant because domestic political rivalry is the principal plausible source of a new onset.
Probability trend
How the Maldives estimate has moved
Probability0.5%0.5%0.4%
Aug 26
Sep 1
Sep 7
Sep 21
Sep 30
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Maldives.
Regional context
Maldives compared with its neighbours and region
Maldives ranks number 137 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Southern Asia
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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