Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 9.7%, a high risk. The level reflects the country’s history of prolonged civil war between the government and the LTTE, unresolved ethnic and political grievances, and the capacity for severe economic or institutional stress to generate unrest. The civil war ended in 2009, but its legacy remains relevant to assessing renewed internal violence.

Recent reporting shows no confirmed armed escalation on Sri Lankan territory. Instead, the Atlas Angel II exchange at Katunayake brought Montana National Guard personnel together with Sri Lankan military and civilian counterparts for disaster-response cooperation, indicating functioning security engagement rather than confrontation. The reported Sri Lanka–Bangladesh women’s cricket match in Dubai is unrelated to conflict risk.

The main uncertainty is whether future economic, political, or communal shocks could turn protest or localized disorder into sustained armed violence. Risk would rise most clearly with organized militant attacks, communal clashes involving firearms, defections or factional violence within the security forces, or renewed separatist mobilization; credible political accommodation, effective institutions, and continued security cooperation would support a lower-risk trajectory.