thediplomat.com · 2 days ago
The Intensifying Geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization
At a time of growing regional turbulence, nations across the region are seeking to equip themselves with more and better armaments.
Read sourceSilfio country intelligence
Afghanistan
High risk18.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Afghanistan facts
Population
43.84M
GDP
$17.78B
Currency
AFN
Capital
Kabul
Land area
652.23K km²
Official languages
Dari, Pashto, Turkmen
Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.
Risk assessment
Silfio assessment of Afghanistan
Conflict probability
18%
Model base probability
14.0%
Risk category
High
Strategic reasoning
- No prediction market data is available for Afghanistan, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
- Recent news indicates ongoing regional instability and militant activity near Afghanistan’s borders (e.g., Pakistani forces killing militants near Afghanistan), suggesting persistent security threats that could escalate into new armed conflict on Afghan soil.
- The Taliban’s military victory has not brought national prosperity or stability, implying fragile governance and potential for internal unrest or insurgency resurgence, increasing the risk of new conflict onset.
- While the US-Iran conflict is intensifying, it is geographically distant and unlikely to directly trigger a new armed conflict onset in Afghanistan within the next 12 months.
Critical indicators
- Pakistani forces killing 24 militants in border raids near Afghanistan (July 2026)
- Taliban’s failure to produce national prosperity post-military victory, indicating fragile internal stability
Related coverage
Latest articles about Afghanistan
Updated July 20, 2026
dawn.com · 2 days ago
Afghanistan’s lost peace - Newspaper - DAWN.COM
The Taliban’s military victory has failed to produce national prosperity.
Read sourcetimesofindia.indiatimes.com · 3 days ago
US-Iran war Highlights: Kuwait says it is retaliating after Iran strikes hit oil, power and desalination plants - The Times of India
The US-Iran conflict is entering a dangerous new phase, with Washington expanding its military campaign beyond conventional military targets and tigh
Read source