Silfio country intelligence · AFG
Afghanistan
10.2% annual probability
Population
43.84M
GDP
$17.78B
Currency
AFN
Capital
Kabul
Land area
652.23K km²
Official languages
Dari, Pashto, Turkmen
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Afghanistan is 10.2%, a high risk. Afghanistan’s history of prolonged civil war, insurgency, foreign intervention, weak institutions, limited economic capacity, and fragmented armed authority leaves it vulnerable to renewed organised violence even after the Taliban’s return to power.
Recent reporting reviewed focuses on the persistence of the Afghan conflict and its international legacy, including the war that began after the Taliban government was removed in December 2001. The Taliban remains the dominant national actor, while militant groups and unresolved political and ethnic tensions remain relevant sources of potential escalation.
The main uncertainty is whether existing insecurity could develop into a sustained, organised conflict involving Taliban forces, domestic challengers, or an external armed actor on Afghan territory. A coordinated insurgent campaign, major Taliban split, or cross-border attack reaching Afghanistan would raise risk; durable containment of armed opposition and reduced external intervention would lower it.
Strategic reasoning
- Afghanistan’s history of civil war, insurgency, and foreign military intervention demonstrates how weak governance and competing armed networks can turn political disputes into sustained conflict.
- The principal escalatory concern is the possible transformation of existing militant or political opposition into a coordinated campaign; violence already occurring does not itself constitute a new-onset event.
Critical indicators
- A recent Express Tribune article, “Persistent Afghan problem,” revisited the Afghanistan war that began in December 2001 after the Taliban government was removed and Al Qaeda’s sanctuary became the trigger for US intervention. This underscores the country’s prolonged exposure to organised armed conflict and external involvement.
- The Taliban’s continued rule provides a central authority, but Afghanistan’s post-2001 experience shows that national control has not eliminated the possibility of insurgent mobilisation, factional conflict, or cross-border violence reaching Afghan territory.
Probability trend
How the Afghanistan estimate has moved
Probability10.5%10.3%10.2%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Afghanistan compared with its neighbours and region
Afghanistan ranks number 36 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Southern Asia
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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