Afghanistan

Afghanistan faces a 29.2% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a critical risk. The country’s prolonged history of civil war, insurgency, foreign intervention, fragmented armed authority, weak institutions, and limited economic capacity leave it vulnerable to renewed organised violence. Taliban rule has not eliminated armed opposition or cross-border militancy, while unresolved disputes over political inclusion and security control remain important sources of fragility.

Recent reporting shows acute deterioration in relations with Pakistan. Pakistani airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan reportedly killed six members of one family, while Pakistani forces and the Taliban exchanged fire along the Kurram–Paktia border. Islamabad demands verifiable action against TTP militants it says operate from Afghan soil; Kabul rejects the allegations, and talks remain conditional. Anti-Taliban groups have also claimed more than 30 recent operations inside Afghanistan.

The largest uncertainty is whether Pakistan’s pressure remains limited to border incidents or develops into sustained attacks on Afghan territory, while anti-Taliban activity either consolidates or fades. Further Pakistani strikes, prolonged border fighting, or coordinated resistance operations would raise risk; a verified security mechanism, durable de-escalation, and reduced armed-group activity would lower it. Polymarket prices Pakistani military action at 48.0% by 15 November and 34.5% by 31 October, providing separate context.