Turkmenistan

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Turkmenistan is 1.1%, a low risk. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, or interstate fighting on its territory, while strong presidential control, extensive security institutions, and limited political pluralism reduce the likelihood that domestic disputes become sustained armed violence. Its isolation and severe economic pressures remain relevant vulnerabilities.

Recent reporting shows a military parade in Ashgabat on 27 September marking 35 years of independence, where Chinese-origin FK-2000 air-defence systems appeared publicly for the first time. Reports of shortages accompanying the celebrations point to social and economic strain, but do not identify an organised armed challenger or an imminent external attack. No prediction markets were found for Turkmenistan.

The main uncertainty is whether worsening shortages or elite tensions could overcome the state’s coercive capacity and political controls. Risk would rise most clearly with organised violent protests, defections or factional conflict within the security apparatus, or a cross-border incident involving Afghanistan or another neighbour; continued regime control and the absence of an armed opposition would keep the risk low.