Tajikistan

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Tajikistan is 8.7%, representing a high risk. The country’s civil war from 1992–1997, continued political repression, weak economic capacity, and difficult governance across remote regions leave it vulnerable to renewed internal violence or destabilisation.

Recent reporting is limited but places Tajikistan within a sensitive Central Asian security environment. An Indian Express analysis of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation discussed connectivity involving Tajikistan, Pakistan, India, and disputed Kashmir; the article did not report an armed incident on Tajik territory. Tajik authorities, neighbouring Afghanistan, and regional powers including Russia and China remain the principal actors shaping the security context.

The main uncertainty is whether domestic grievances or instability around Afghanistan could overcome the state’s coercive control and external security backing. Risk would rise through renewed armed clashes in Gorno-Badakhshan, serious unrest in other regions, or cross-border militant activity reaching Tajik territory; sustained political control, border security, and continued regional support would lower the likelihood of onset.