Tajikistan

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Tajikistan is 7.6%, representing a high risk. The country’s civil war from 1992 to 1997, later unrest in the Rasht Valley and Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, and recurring tensions along the Kyrgyzstan border demonstrate persistent vulnerabilities. Limited political pluralism, weak economic capacity, dependence on remittances, and proximity to Afghanistan add to the potential for instability.

Recent reporting provides little direct evidence of an imminent onset inside Tajikistan. Coverage instead mentions Iranian investment in Tajikistan and the screening of an Iranian war thriller at a Tajik film festival; neither indicates fighting on Tajik territory. The principal relevant actors remain the Tajik state, opposition or regional networks, Kyrgyzstan, and armed groups operating from or near Afghanistan.

The largest uncertainty is whether political repression, regional grievances, or a security incident could combine into sustained armed violence. Risk would rise through renewed clashes in Gorno-Badakhshan or along the Kyrgyz border, or a militant spillover from Afghanistan; it would fall through durable border calm, effective local accommodation, and continued state control.