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Silfio country intelligence

Uzbekistan

Low risk2.0% annual probabilityrising trend
Uzbekistan flag

Uzbekistan facts

Population

37.05M

GDP

$147.04B

Currency

UZS

Capital

Tashkent

Land area

447.4K km²

Official languages

Russian, Uzbek

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Uzbekistan

NEWS

Conflict probability

2%

Model base probability

1.3%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Uzbekistan, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Current news shows intense regional instability: ongoing large-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine, including cross-border drone strikes and missile attacks, and a concurrent US-Iran war with recent escalations.
  • While none of these conflicts directly involve Uzbekistan or indicate immediate threats on its territory, the regional volatility in Central Asia and neighboring Russia could increase spillover risks, insurgency potential, or opportunistic internal unrest in Uzbekistan.
  • The structural model is slow to incorporate such rapid geopolitical shifts; given the heightened regional tensions and potential for conflict diffusion, a moderate upward adjustment is warranted.

Critical indicators

  • Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics and oil depots near Moscow, escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict.
  • Renewed US-Iran hostilities with recent attacks and retaliatory airstrikes.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Uzbekistan

Updated July 20, 2026

cnn.com · 2 days ago

Warehouse workers among 8 dead in deadliest Ukrainian attacks inside Russia for two years | CNN

Ukrainian drone attacks have killed at least eight people at warehouses in Russia, according to regional officials.

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kyivindependent.com · 2 days ago

2 Russian logistics centers, oil depot hit as Kyiv launches hundreds of drones towards Moscow

"These are Russian logistics facilities, specifically warehouses used to supply war materiel: navigation equipment, components for drone production, and other supplies for the Russian army," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Read source

oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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