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Silfio country intelligence · UZB
Uzbekistan
4.0% annual probability
Population
37.05M
GDP
$147.04B
Currency
UZS
Capital
Tashkent
Land area
447.4K km²
Official languages
Russian, Uzbek
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Uzbekistan faces a 4.0% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, a moderate risk. The level reflects strong state capacity and generally effective political control, balanced against a history of serious unrest, including the 2005 Andijan violence, periodic communal tensions, and exposure to insecurity from Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Recent reporting points mainly to diplomatic and defence engagement rather than violence inside Uzbekistan. Tashkent is expanding military cooperation with India through exercises, strategic consultations, and military-technical ties, while President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s scheduled visit to Serbia highlights active external relationships. No prediction market was available for Uzbekistan.
The main uncertainty is whether regional insecurity, socioeconomic grievances, or a sudden domestic political shock could overwhelm the authorities’ control. Risk would rise most clearly after sustained armed unrest, militant infiltration from Afghanistan, or major communal violence inside Uzbekistan; continued state stability and expanding security partnerships would support the current moderate assessment.
Strategic reasoning
- Uzbekistan’s strong executive institutions and security apparatus reduce the likelihood that protests or local grievances develop into sustained armed conflict, while the 2005 Andijan violence shows that serious internal unrest remains possible.
- Afghanistan’s proximity and the country’s history of exposure to militant networks create an external pathway to escalation, although current reporting instead emphasises organised defence cooperation and regional diplomacy.
- Fighting involving Uzbek forces abroad would not itself constitute an onset in Uzbekistan; the relevant threshold is sustained armed violence or a cross-border attack reaching Uzbek territory.
Critical indicators
- In early September 2026, the Uzbek ambassador described expanding defence ties with India, centred on joint exercises, strategic consultations, and military-technical cooperation. These ties strengthen security options and signal active external engagement.
- On 4 September 2026, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said President Mirziyoyev’s official visit for 7–8 September had been scheduled four months earlier. The visit indicates continuing diplomatic engagement, with no reported armed confrontation involving Uzbekistan.
Probability trend
How the Uzbekistan estimate has moved
Probability4.1%4.0%4.0%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Uzbekistan compared with its neighbours and region
Uzbekistan ranks number 64 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Central Asia
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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