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Silfio country intelligence · UZB
Uzbekistan
3.5% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
37.05M
GDP
$147.04B
Currency
UZS
Capital
Tashkent
Land area
447.4K km²
Official languages
Russian, Uzbek
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability is 3.5%, representing a moderate risk. Uzbekistan’s tightly controlled political system and limited space for organised opposition reduce the likelihood of sustained internal conflict, while its history includes the 2005 Andijan unrest, episodes of militant violence, and serious tensions in the Ferghana Valley. Economic and institutional pressures, unresolved border sensitivities, and instability in nearby Afghanistan remain relevant background risks.
Recent reporting shows major investment and state-building activity rather than active fighting. On 16 October, Uzbekistan announced $4.7 billion in energy agreements involving ACWA Power, EDF, and Toyota Tsusho, alongside plans for additional nuclear plants and wider oil and gas exploration. Separately, Tashkent clarified that military registration procedures are administrative and do not mean immediate conscription. No prediction markets were identified.
The main uncertainty is whether domestic grievances, regional instability, or militant spillover could overcome the state’s strong coercive and administrative capacity. Risk would rise most clearly through sustained armed incidents in the Ferghana Valley, attacks linked to militant networks, serious unrest involving security forces, or cross-border violence reaching Uzbekistan; continued investment, administrative control, and the absence of organised armed opposition would support stability.
Strategic reasoning
- Uzbekistan’s record of suppressing unrest, including the 2005 Andijan crackdown, indicates both a capacity to contain mobilisation and a history of episodes that could become more dangerous under severe political or economic stress.
- Current reporting provides no indication of fighting inside Uzbekistan. Energy investment and clarification of conscription procedures are stabilising signals, while Afghanistan’s proximity and unresolved regional tensions remain potential sources of escalation.
Critical indicators
- On 16 October 2026, Uzbekistan announced $4.7 billion in energy agreements involving ACWA Power, EDF, and Toyota Tsusho, covering 3,000 MW of generation and 400 MW of storage. The scale of investment signals continuing state capacity and international economic engagement.
- In October 2026, Tashkent clarified that military registration places citizens on official records and assesses fitness, rather than immediately drafting them. This addresses a potentially sensitive public issue but does not indicate mobilisation for domestic conflict.
Probability trend
How the Uzbekistan estimate has moved
Probability3.5%3.5%3.5%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Uzbekistan.
Regional context
Uzbekistan compared with its neighbours and region
Uzbekistan ranks number 68 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Central Asia
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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