Kazakhstan

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Kazakhstan is 1.1%, a low risk. Kazakhstan’s strong state capacity, extensive security apparatus, and limited recent insurgent activity constrain the likelihood of sustained internal conflict. However, the January 2022 unrest demonstrated that economic grievances and political tensions can rapidly produce deadly violence, while Kazakhstan’s proximity to Russia, China, Afghanistan, and other Central Asian states exposes it to regional shocks.

Recent reporting shows Kazakhstan pursuing major state-led economic and energy projects rather than facing a reported armed mobilisation. On 4 September, authorities moved ahead with construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant. Kazakhstan also participated in a 7 September OPEC+ meeting alongside Russia, Iran-war-affected regional producers, and other members; the conflict remains external to Kazakhstan and does not constitute fighting on its territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether domestic economic or political grievances could again overwhelm established controls, or whether regional instability could generate spillover. Renewed mass unrest accompanied by armed repression, organised insurgent activity, or a cross-border attack reaching Kazakhstan would raise risk; continued institutional control, economic stability, and the absence of militant mobilisation would support the low-risk assessment.