India

The 12-month probability is 42.8%, representing a critical risk of a new armed conflict on Indian territory. India’s large population, difficult internal security environment, and history of armed violence—including insurgencies in Jammu and Kashmir and the northeast, as well as Maoist rebellion—provide the main long-run basis for this level. Its capable state institutions and substantial economic and military resources support containment but do not remove the possibility of renewed conflict.

Recent reporting provides limited India-specific detail, but the regional security environment remains relevant. India’s principal potential interstate actors are Pakistan and China, while domestic militant and insurgent groups remain relevant to internal-conflict risk. Prediction markets separately imply 14.0% for an Indian strike on Pakistan by 31 December 2026 and 6.5% for a China–India military clash; these contracts are partial or full-scope indicators of external escalation concerns, not direct measures of the calibrated onset probability.

The largest uncertainty is whether tensions involving Pakistan, China, or domestic armed groups cross from confrontation or sporadic violence into sustained fighting on Indian territory. A confirmed cross-border attack, major militant campaign, or serious breakdown in central or state security control would raise risk; durable de-escalation with Pakistan and China, alongside effective containment of insurgent networks, would lower it.