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Silfio country intelligence

Myanmar

High risk6.5% annual probabilityfalling trend
Myanmar flag

Myanmar facts

Population

54.85M

GDP

$81.67B

Currency

MMK

Capital

Naypyidaw

Land area

676.58K km²

Official languages

Burmese

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Myanmar

NEWS

Conflict probability

6.5%

Model base probability

4.2%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available to directly inform the probability, so news must guide the adjustment.
  • Myanmar remains in a protracted civil conflict with fragmented territorial control and ongoing political instability following the 2021 coup and recent elections, indicating a volatile environment prone to new conflict onsets.
  • Regional military modernization and geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia add external pressure that could trigger interstate conflict or new armed confrontations within Myanmar.
  • The humanitarian crisis involving the Rohingya and ongoing repression suggests persistent internal instability that could spark new armed conflict episodes or fronts.

Critical indicators

  • Continued protracted civil conflict and fragmented control post-2021 coup and 2026 elections.
  • Intensifying regional military modernization and geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia.
  • Humanitarian crisis and persecution of Rohingya minority with recent maritime tragedies.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Myanmar

Updated July 20, 2026

moemaka.net · 3 days ago

Military Conflict, Diplomacy, Dialogue, and Myanmar’s Political Landscape

Myanmar Spring Chronicle – Scenes from July 16 (MoeMaKa), July 17, 2026 Military Conflict, Diplomacy, Dialogue, and Myanmar’s Political Landscape When it comes to Myanmar’s political crisis and civil war, the international community generally approaches the issue from a common perspective: ...

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thediplomat.com · 2 days ago

The Intensifying Geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization

At a time of growing regional turbulence, nations across the region are seeking to equip themselves with more and better armaments.

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orfonline.org · 2 days ago

Myanmar's Next Phase: Regional Challenges and Strategic Choices

More than five years after the 2021 military coup, and following the recent elections, Myanmar continues to confront a protracted civil conflict, fragmented territorial control, and deepening humanitarian and economic challenges. While the elections mark an important political milestone, they ...

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