Myanmar

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Myanmar is 45.1%, a critical risk. Myanmar has experienced repeated coups, civil wars, ethnic insurgencies, and sustained military rule, while the 2021 coup left authority fragmented among the junta, resistance forces, and longstanding ethnic armed organisations. Weak institutions, limited state control, and extensive military use of force support a high likelihood that conflict could spread into new areas.

Recent reporting highlights continuing cross-border dimensions to Myanmar’s armed violence. Indian investigators allege that foreign nationals supported drone training and attacks by Myanmar-based ethnic armed groups, including an attack on a civilian aircraft; the case shows the expanding capabilities and reach of armed actors, although it concerns fighting already underway rather than a wholly new conflict. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s September visit to Vietnam reflects efforts to restore diplomatic ties and reduce isolation.

The largest uncertainty is whether existing fronts remain contained or trigger fresh fighting in areas not currently experiencing armed conflict. A major junta offensive, a breakdown in arrangements with an ethnic armed organisation, or a significant new drone or cross-border attack inside Myanmar would raise risk; sustained diplomacy, local ceasefires, or effective restraint by the principal armed actors would lower it.