Myanmar

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Myanmar is 25.9%, a critical risk. The country’s recent history includes the 2021 military coup, prolonged civil war, repeated ethnic insurgencies, weak civilian institutions, and limited state control across large borderland areas. These conditions make further localized or cross-border violence on Myanmar’s territory plausible even when conflict is already occurring elsewhere in the country.

Recent reporting shows the military-backed government under Min Aung Hlaing remains internationally contested while continuing its campaign against armed opponents. ASEAN leaders are increasingly engaging with the authorities, and the United States held a second set of talks with Myanmar’s rulers in Tokyo within a month, discussing scam centres, rare earths, and diplomatic contacts. These developments involve the junta, the United States, ASEAN governments, ethnic armed organisations, and resistance forces.

The largest uncertainty is whether external engagement produces political restraints or instead gives the military greater confidence to intensify coercion and provoke new fronts. Risk would rise with a major military offensive, an ethnic-army breakdown of ceasefire arrangements, or cross-border escalation reaching Myanmar; sustained negotiations, local ceasefires, and reduced military operations would lower it.