Thailand

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Thailand is 4.3%, a moderate risk. Thailand’s history of military coups, political confrontation, and prolonged insurgency in the southern provinces supports continued exposure to internal armed violence, while contested civil–military relations and uneven governance remain relevant country factors.

Recent reporting is dominated by the USS Abraham Lincoln’s five-day port visit to Pattaya, which ended on September 6 after a 286-day deployment connected to the US war with Iran. The arrival of roughly 5,000 US personnel prompted increased tourist-police and drone security, but the reporting describes routine protection of a foreign military visit rather than fighting on Thai territory. Thailand’s government, security services, and the United States are the principal actors in this episode.

The largest uncertainty is whether domestic political disputes or renewed violence in the southern provinces could exceed the authorities’ established containment capacity. Risk would rise with a sustained insurgent escalation, major political unrest accompanied by armed mobilisation, or a military intervention producing organised resistance; it would fall with continued suppression of militant activity and orderly management of political competition.