Thailand

The probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Thailand within 12 months is 5.0%, representing a high risk. Thailand’s history of military coups, political confrontation, and persistent insurgent violence in the southern provinces sustains exposure to renewed domestic armed violence. Strong state capacity and established security institutions provide important resilience, but political crises have repeatedly strained civilian-military relations.

Recent reporting provides limited direct evidence of escalation. Around six police dogs were deployed on rotating shifts to secure the venue for the IMF and World Bank meetings in Thailand, reflecting heightened protection for a major international gathering rather than evidence of an armed-conflict onset. The principal relevant actors remain the Thai state, security forces, political factions, and insurgent groups in the south.

The largest uncertainty is whether political disputes or southern insurgent activity could cross into sustained, organised fighting on Thai territory. A new coup accompanied by armed resistance, a major insurgent escalation, or violent clashes involving organised domestic groups would raise risk; sustained political accommodation, effective security management, and containment of existing violence would lower it.