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Silfio country intelligence

Cambodia

Low risk2.5% annual probabilityrising trend
Cambodia flag

Cambodia facts

Population

17.85M

GDP

$51.27B

Currency

KHR

Capital

Phnom Penh

Land area

181.04K km²

Official languages

Khmer

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Cambodia

NEWS

Conflict probability

2.5%

Model base probability

1.5%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction markets exist for Cambodia armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Regional military modernization and tensions between Cambodia and Thailand, including Cambodia’s enhanced defensive capabilities and Thailand’s military posturing, increase interstate conflict risk.
  • China’s active diplomatic engagement to resolve Cambodia-Thailand border disputes may reduce but not eliminate risk, as tensions remain unresolved and nationalistic rhetoric persists.
  • Domestic repression laws that can render citizens stateless for “undermining national security” indicate potential for internal unrest or insurgency, raising internal conflict risk.

Critical indicators

  • Thailand’s public concern over Cambodian tanks amid its own military readiness (Phnom Penh Post, 2026-07)
  • Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s offer to mediate Cambodia-Thailand border dispute (SCMP, 2026-07)
  • Cambodian law enabling statelessness for “undermining national security” (Global Voices, 2026-07)

Related coverage

Latest articles about Cambodia

Updated July 20, 2026

thediplomat.com · 2 days ago

The Intensifying Geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization

At a time of growing regional turbulence, nations across the region are seeking to equip themselves with more and better armaments.

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phnompenhpost.com · 2 days ago

Why Does Thailand Fear Cambodian Tanks, While Brandishing Its Own Gripen and F-16 Fighters - Phnom Penh Post

Bangkok cannot demand reassurance over Cambodia’s defensive capabilities while repeatedly advertising its own readiness to use overwhelming military force.

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globalvoices.org · 16 hours ago

Cambodian law can render citizens stateless for ‘undermining national security’

“I know how easily words like ‘traitor’ and ‘enemy’ can be wielded by those in power to crush hope and sow fear.”

Read source