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Silfio country intelligence · KHM
Cambodia
15.1% annual probability
Population
17.85M
GDP
$51.27B
Currency
KHR
Capital
Phnom Penh
Land area
181.04K km²
Official languages
Khmer
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Cambodia is 15.1%, a high risk. Cambodia’s history of civil war, insurgency, political violence, and coups leaves a persistent vulnerability to renewed internal conflict, while unresolved border disputes and limited political pluralism increase the consequences of institutional stress.
Recent reporting shows the main immediate danger is renewed confrontation with Thailand. Fighting along the disputed border displaced Cambodian families and was followed by a ceasefire, but crossings remain closed, distrust persists, and Cambodia has protested alleged Thai military incursions into its airspace. The government’s proposed legal changes further narrowing opposition representation could increase domestic tensions.
The largest uncertainty is whether the ceasefire and established military channels can contain further border incidents, while political restrictions remain managed without provoking organised resistance. Risk would rise if another armed exchange, prolonged mobilisation, or serious domestic crackdown occurred; it would fall with sustained border calm, reopened crossings, and credible political de-escalation. No prediction-market signal is available.
Strategic reasoning
- Cambodia’s history of civil war, insurgency, and political violence means disputes can become armed when institutions fail to absorb pressure. Current restrictions on opposition participation preserve a domestic pathway to confrontation even without active nationwide fighting.
- The strongest escalatory signal is the unresolved Thailand border crisis: recent fighting, displacement, closed crossings, and the alleged 3 September helicopter incursion create opportunities for miscalculation on Cambodian territory.
- The ceasefire and Cambodia’s planned resumption of joint exercises with the United States provide channels for military engagement and restraint. These factors reduce escalation pressure but do not remove the distinction between fighting already reported on the border and a possible new onset during the coming year.
Critical indicators
- On 3 September 2026, Cambodia said a Royal Thai Air Force helicopter entered roughly 400 metres into Cambodian airspace over Battambang; Phnom Penh issued a formal protest on 4 September. The incident demonstrates how a localized violation could trigger renewed interstate escalation.
- Reporting on 4 September 2026 said the Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire remained in place nearly a year after border fighting, but crossings were still closed and public hostility persisted. Cambodian families displaced by the fighting have moved from tents into a new 3,000-house settlement, showing the conflict’s continuing domestic impact.
- On 4 September 2026, Human Rights Watch criticized proposed legal amendments that would reduce opposition representation on local councils. The changes could deepen political confrontation, while Cambodia’s announced plan to resume US joint military exercises in 2027 offers a separate stabilizing channel.
Probability trend
How the Cambodia estimate has moved
Probability15.3%10.9%6.5%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Cambodia compared with its neighbours and region
Cambodia ranks number 23 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
South-Eastern Asia
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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