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Silfio country intelligence · KHM
Cambodia
9.9% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
17.85M
GDP
$51.27B
Currency
KHR
Capital
Phnom Penh
Land area
181.04K km²
Official languages
Khmer
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Cambodia’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 9.9%, a high risk. The country’s history of civil war, Khmer Rouge rule, insurgency, and periodic armed tension with Thailand supports continued sensitivity to political and border disputes. Institutional constraints and uneven state capacity also make crises harder to manage once they intensify.
Recent reporting centres on the unresolved Cambodia–Thailand border dispute. Cambodia and Türkiye signed a military framework agreement in Istanbul, while President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called for a peaceful settlement, indicating heightened defence diplomacy but not reporting a new clash on Cambodian territory. Separately, the United States and Cambodian government are cooperating against Cambodia-based criminal networks, with Treasury actions targeting scam compounds.
The main uncertainty is whether border disagreements remain within diplomacy or produce a sustained armed confrontation. Risk would rise most clearly through fighting, mobilisation, or a breakdown in negotiations along the Thai border; continued peaceful mediation, direct bilateral engagement, and effective state control would lower the likelihood of a new onset.
Strategic reasoning
- Cambodia’s history of civil war, insurgency, and armed political conflict shows that severe domestic crises have previously developed when institutions and security arrangements weakened.
- The Thailand border dispute is the strongest current escalatory signal, while Erdoğan’s peace appeal and Cambodia’s defence engagement with Türkiye provide diplomatic channels that may contain tensions.
- Cooperation with the United States against criminal networks supports state capacity and is separate from any conflict already occurring abroad or from a new armed conflict inside Cambodia.
Critical indicators
- On Friday, Cambodia and Türkiye signed a military framework agreement in Istanbul. The deal deepens security cooperation as Cambodia manages tensions with Thailand, although the same report recorded Erdoğan’s call for a peaceful resolution.
- On Friday, US Treasury Undersecretary Erin Browne said Washington was working with Cambodia to dismantle Cambodia-based scam-centre networks. Treasury sanctions and joint enforcement strengthen cooperation between the two governments and reinforce Cambodian control over armed or criminal activity.
Probability trend
How the Cambodia estimate has moved
Probability12.0%10.9%9.9%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP · Data to 31 Aug 2026
Cambodia (Kampuchea) - Thailand
128Deaths (last 12 months)- Opposition
- Government of Thailand
- Started
- 26 Jul 2025
Regional context
Cambodia compared with its neighbours and region
Cambodia ranks number 37 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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