Philippines

The live 12-month probability is 11.6%, making this a high risk. The Philippines’ history of communist insurgency, Muslim separatist conflict, political violence, and recurrent unrest provides a durable basis for armed-conflict onset risk. Its archipelagic geography, uneven state capacity, and unresolved territorial disputes also create several pathways to escalation.

Recent reporting highlights sharper China–Philippines tensions in the South China Sea. Beijing’s claim that it could “easily win” a war, alongside Manila’s description of the remarks as a threat, raises concern around contested waters including Scarborough Shoal. The Philippines’ expanding security and energy cooperation with the United States provides deterrence but also increases the strategic significance of any maritime incident. A Polymarket contract gives a 23.5% implied probability of a China–Philippines military clash before 2027, with more than 543,000 in volume.

The largest uncertainty is whether coercive maritime encounters remain below the threshold of armed attack or develop into sustained fighting on Philippine territory. Risk would rise most clearly after casualties, a blockade, or a deliberate strike involving Chinese and Philippine forces; sustained de-escalation, reliable crisis communications, and continued containment of domestic armed groups would lower it.