Philippines

The Philippines has a 23.3% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within 12 months, making this a critical risk. The country’s long history of communist insurgency, separatist rebellion, extremist violence, and political crises demonstrates recurring pathways to internal armed conflict. Its archipelagic geography, uneven state presence, and persistent disputes in the southern Philippines also complicate security control.

The strongest current signal is the continuing possibility of confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, involving Chinese maritime forces and the Philippine government. Polymarket currently assigns a 25.5% probability to a China–Philippines military clash before 2027, with approximately $397,476 in volume; this is separate market context rather than a change to the live estimate. Any clash reaching Philippine territory would qualify as a new interstate onset.

The largest uncertainty is whether maritime coercion remains below the threshold of armed attack and whether domestic insurgent or extremist activity escalates into a sustained new conflict rather than continuing existing violence. Risk would rise most clearly after a deadly armed encounter on Philippine territory or a major breakdown in southern security; sustained de-escalation with China and effective containment of armed groups would lower pressure.