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Silfio country intelligence

Indonesia

Low risk2.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Indonesia flag

Indonesia facts

Population

285.72M

GDP

$1.45T

Currency

IDR

Capital

Jakarta

Land area

1.9M km²

Official languages

Indonesian

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Indonesia

NEWS

Conflict probability

2%

Model base probability

1.5%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Indonesia, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Regional military modernization and growing geopolitical turbulence in Southeast Asia suggest a rising baseline risk of interstate conflict or spillover violence.
  • Indonesia’s economy is showing warning signs, which could exacerbate internal instability and increase the risk of internal armed conflict onset such as insurgency or unrest.
  • Although the Iran-US conflict is intensifying, it is geographically distant and unlikely to directly trigger a new armed conflict onset on Indonesian soil.

Critical indicators

  • Southeast Asian nations, including Indonesia’s neighbors, are intensifying military modernization amid regional turbulence.
  • Warning signs flashing across Indonesia’s economy with persistent unresolved problems.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Indonesia

Updated July 20, 2026

thediplomat.com · 2 days ago

The Intensifying Geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization

At a time of growing regional turbulence, nations across the region are seeking to equip themselves with more and better armaments.

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asiatimes.com · 1 day ago

A blockade at Hormuz, a crisis for all humanity - Asia Times

The current architecture of international relations faces a profound, non-linear crisis that extends far beyond the traditional boundaries of regional

Read source

aljazeera.com · 1 day ago

What to expect after the US reimposes naval blockade on Iran’s ports? | Energy News | Al Jazeera

Pressure is expected to build on the Iranian public, as well as global energy markets due to the US blockade.

Read source