Indonesia

Indonesia faces a 12-month probability of 12.8%, a high risk. The main supporting factors are its history of separatist conflict in Aceh and Papua, episodes of communal violence, and persistent tensions in a geographically dispersed archipelago. Large regional disparities, difficult-to-govern frontier areas, and uneven state access can allow local disputes to become sustained armed violence, despite Indonesia’s considerable economic and institutional capacity.

Recent reporting provides no clear evidence of a new armed conflict. On Saturday, Indonesian authorities used water bombing to contain wildfires near Nusantara, the planned capital in Borneo; the operation involved civil authorities and reflected a public-security and disaster-management challenge rather than organised violence. No prediction-market signal is available for Indonesia.

The largest uncertainty is whether political, communal, or separatist tensions could combine with a triggering incident and overwhelm local containment. Risk would rise most clearly if armed separatist mobilisation, sustained communal clashes, or attacks on security forces spread beyond an isolated locality. A durable political settlement in Papua or other conflict-affected areas, alongside effective local policing and dialogue, would lower the likelihood of a new onset.