Papua New Guinea

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Papua New Guinea is 4.4%, representing a moderate risk. The main supporting factors are the country’s history of the Bougainville conflict, recurring tribal and communal fighting, limited state reach in remote areas, and institutional and economic constraints that can impede mediation and security provision.

Recent reporting reviewed contains no clear indication of a new armed confrontation on Papua New Guinea’s territory. The available item concerns the 2026 Rugby League World Cup and Papua New Guinea’s expected match against Samoa, rather than security developments involving the national government, Bougainville actors, tribal groups, or neighbouring states.

The largest uncertainty is whether localised tribal disputes or political tensions could combine with weak policing to produce sustained armed violence. Risk would rise most clearly with organised fighting involving political or communal actors, a serious breakdown around elections or governance, or renewed violence in Bougainville; it would fall with durable local peace agreements, effective security deployments, and sustained dispute mediation.