Papua New Guinea

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Papua New Guinea is 4.5%, a moderate risk. The level is supported by a history of armed political and communal violence, including the Bougainville conflict and recurring tribal fighting in the Highlands, alongside limited state reach, difficult terrain, weak law enforcement capacity, and contested local governance.

Recent reporting reviewed does not identify a new insurgency, coup, interstate confrontation, or organised armed mobilisation involving the national government, provincial authorities, tribal groups, or foreign states. The main current reports concern the fatal crocodile attack at an Adventure Park in Port Moresby, rather than politically motivated violence. No prediction market is available for Papua New Guinea.

The largest uncertainty is whether localised tribal or electoral disputes could combine with weak policing and generate sustained armed violence. Risk would rise with coordinated fighting between clans or political factions, a major election-related breakdown, or an armed challenge to state authority; it would fall with durable containment of Highland conflicts, effective mediation, and stronger security provision.