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Silfio country intelligence · VUT
Vanuatu
0.2% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country. Existing conflicts are assessed through scenario analysis.
Population
335.17K
GDP
$1.35B
Currency
VUV
Capital
Port Vila
Land area
12.19K km²
Official languages
Bislama, English, French
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Vanuatu is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no established record of civil war, insurgency, or sustained politically organised armed violence, and its democratic institutions and geographically dispersed island society have generally contained political disputes without military escalation. Limited economic and state capacity remain background vulnerabilities, but they have not translated into organised conflict.
Recent reporting offers no indication of armed mobilisation, territorial confrontation, or violent political crisis. A national consultation in Port Vila is preparing a pledge to strengthen protection against violence toward children, involving government and community stakeholders; this is a social-protection initiative rather than a conflict signal. No neighbouring or armed-group actor is reported to be threatening Vanuatu’s territory.
The main uncertainty is whether an unforeseen domestic political rupture, communal confrontation, or external security incident could overwhelm established mechanisms for peaceful dispute management. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed clashes, a violent coup attempt, or an organised insurgent network; it would remain lower if political disagreements continue to be handled through institutions and community processes.
Strategic reasoning
- Vanuatu’s absence of a sustained armed-conflict history and its record of managing political competition through civilian institutions strongly support the minimal classification.
- The strongest recent signal is stabilising: a national consultation is developing concrete measures against violence toward children, with no reported armed actor or interstate threat. Any future domestic violence would need to become sustained and organised to meet the onset definition.
Critical indicators
- In late September 2026, Vanuatu held a national consultation in Port Vila on a pledge to end violence against children. The planned targets and actions indicate institutional and community engagement, not mobilisation for armed conflict.
- Vanuatu’s post-independence political disputes have generally remained within electoral, parliamentary, and constitutional channels, while the country has not developed a persistent insurgency or civil-war movement. This history supports the very low likelihood of a new onset absent a major rupture.
Probability trend
How the Vanuatu estimate has moved
Probability0.2%0.2%0.2%
Aug 26
Sep 1
Sep 7
Sep 21
Sep 30
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Vanuatu.
Regional context
Vanuatu compared with its neighbours and region
Vanuatu ranks number 170 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Melanesia
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.