Fiji

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Fiji is 0.4%, representing a minimal risk. Fiji has experienced coups and episodes of political violence, notably in 1987, 2000, and 2006, so military intervention and institutional disruption remain relevant historical considerations. Its relatively small population, established state institutions, and limited internal armed-group presence otherwise support a low likelihood of sustained violence.

Recent reporting provides no indication of organised armed activity or an interstate threat reaching Fiji. The only Fiji-linked report concerns a Fijian relief pilot witnessing a stabbing aboard a Flydubai flight connected to an incident outside Fiji; it does not indicate violence on Fijian territory. No prediction market for Fiji was identified.

The main uncertainty is whether political or security tensions could again produce military intervention or organised domestic violence, particularly during a severe constitutional or economic crisis. Risk would rise most clearly with a coup attempt, armed attacks between political factions, or a foreign military action reaching Fiji; continued peaceful political competition and effective security-sector restraint would support the current minimal level.