Solomon Islands

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Solomon Islands is 0.3%, a minimal risk. The country’s main long-run vulnerability is its history of communal violence during the 1998–2003 “Tensions” and serious unrest, including riots in Honiara in 2021. Limited state capacity, geographic fragmentation, and dependence on external security assistance remain relevant, but the country has not experienced sustained nationwide armed conflict since the Regional Assistance Mission ended.

Recent reporting places Solomon Islands in cooperative regional diplomacy rather than confrontation. Its leaders attended a Pacific forum with Fiji, Kiribati, New Caledonia, and Samoa, while the United States and New Zealand announced wider regional initiatives involving climate action, crime fighting, and security-related support. No reported armed mobilisation, insurgent campaign, interstate dispute, or organised challenge by a domestic armed group currently points to a new conflict on Solomon Islands’ territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or communal grievances could again combine with economic stress and trigger concentrated unrest in Honiara or elsewhere. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained violent riots, organised attacks on state institutions, or a breakdown in policing; continued regional engagement, effective security assistance, and peaceful political competition would support the minimal-risk assessment.