Solomon Islands

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Solomon Islands is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. The country’s conflict history is concentrated in the 1998–2003 Guadalcanal civil conflict, while subsequent peacebuilding, state institutions, and the regional intervention led by Australia through RAMSI helped prevent a return to sustained warfare.

Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific escalation involving the Solomon Islands Government, Malaitan or Guadalcanal-based armed actors, or neighbouring states that would indicate an imminent new conflict on Solomon Islands territory. The country’s past unrest, including serious political violence in Honiara, remains relevant context but does not itself constitute a new onset.

The main uncertainty is whether political disputes, economic grievances, or tensions between national and provincial constituencies could again produce organised violence beyond riot conditions. A sustained armed mobilisation, attacks by organised domestic groups, or an external armed incursion would raise risk; continued political management and effective security responses would support the current minimal assessment.