Laos

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Laos is 2.8%, representing a low risk. The country has avoided nationwide armed conflict since the civil war ended in 1975, while one-party rule, limited political competition, and relatively weak state capacity remain relevant background factors. Economic constraints and difficult geography can also complicate governance and security provision.

Recent reporting reviewed contains no specific development indicating an imminent new conflict on Lao territory. The principal domestic actor is the Lao state and its security apparatus; neighbouring China, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, and Cambodia remain important external influences, but there is no reported interstate confrontation involving Laos that points directly to an onset.

The main uncertainty is whether localised political, social, or economic grievances could combine with elite fragmentation or cross-border instability to produce sustained armed violence. Risk would rise most clearly after organised attacks, an armed mutiny, or evidence of a sustained insurgency; it would fall with continued political control, calm borders, and effective containment of local disputes.