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Silfio country intelligence

Bangladesh

Moderate risk3.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Bangladesh flag

Bangladesh facts

Population

175.69M

GDP

$456.32B

Currency

BDT

Capital

Dhaka

Land area

147.57K km²

Official languages

Bengali

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Bangladesh

NEWS

Conflict probability

3.5%

Model base probability

2.4%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction markets exist for Bangladesh armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News indicates ongoing political instability and ideological struggles within Bangladesh, suggesting persistent internal tensions that could escalate into armed conflict.
  • The Rohingya crisis remains a significant geopolitical and humanitarian burden, with regional powers involved, increasing the risk of spillover violence or insurgency on Bangladeshi soil.
  • Regional military modernization and conflicts in neighboring countries (Pakistan, Myanmar) contribute to a more volatile security environment around Bangladesh.

Critical indicators

  • Continued political struggles over democracy and authoritarian tendencies in Bangladesh.
  • The ongoing Rohingya crisis and its geopolitical implications involving Myanmar and regional powers.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Bangladesh

Updated July 20, 2026

en.prothomalo.com · 3 days ago

Bay of Bengal, new geopolitics, and Bangladesh's strategic opportunities

At first glance, the China–Myanmar–Bangladesh Economic Corridor appears to be an infrastructure and trade connectivity project. On closer examination, however, it is about far more than roads, railways, ports, pipelines, or industrial zones. It signals the emergence of a new geoeconomic ...

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countercurrents.org · 18 hours ago

Bangladesh Beyond Exile | Countercurrents

For much of its history, Bangladesh has been viewed as a nation whose political journey reflected a constant struggle between democracy, secularism, military intervention, and competing ideological visions. More than five decades after its independence, that struggle appears far from settled.

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pressenza.com · 3 days ago

The Geopolitical Vice of the 'Rohingya Crisis': Humanitarian Catastrophe and Bangladesh’s Endless Burden

By Md. Rezaur Rahim (Dhaka Bureau) While the global voices for peace, non-violence, and human rights are drowned out by the clamor of wars in Ukraine,

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