Bangladesh

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Bangladesh is 30.6%, representing a critical risk. The strongest long-run factors are the country’s history of intense political confrontation, recurring street violence, weak institutional safeguards, and the unresolved consequences of the July 2024 uprising. These conditions can allow political disputes to escalate beyond routine unrest.

Recent reporting highlights political clashes, mob attacks, pressure on press freedom, and worsening violence against women and children during August 2026. The principal domestic risks involve rival political forces, mobilisation in the streets, and local groups capable of turning disorder into sustained armed violence; no neighbouring-state military trigger is identified in the available reporting.

The largest uncertainty is whether political competition remains within protest and episodic violence or produces organised, sustained fighting. Risk would rise if clashes become coordinated, involve firearms, spread across multiple areas, or prompt organised retaliation. It would fall if authorities and political leaders contain mob violence, protect civic space, and establish credible mechanisms for managing post-uprising disputes.