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Silfio country intelligence · IRQ
Iraq
22.1% annual probability
Population
47.02M
GDP
$254.37B
Currency
IQD
Capital
Baghdad
Land area
438.32K km²
Official languages
Arabic, Aramaic, Sorani
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Iraq is 22.1%, representing a critical risk. Iraq’s history of invasion, civil war, insurgency, sectarian violence, and militia competition leaves institutions vulnerable to renewed armed confrontation. Its location between Iran, the United States, Syria, and the Gulf also exposes domestic security to regional escalation.
Recent reporting highlights Iraq’s position as an economic channel for Iran amid US sanctions and renewed pressure on Baghdad to dismantle Iran-linked Popular Mobilization Forces. Reports that Iraqi militias could participate in a coordinated Iranian multi-front campaign against Israel raise concern that regional hostilities could reach Iraqi territory, even though the cited fighting is currently centred elsewhere.
The largest uncertainty is whether militia activity remains externally focused and politically managed or turns into sustained violence inside Iraq. Risk would rise if Iraqi armed groups conducted attacks from or within Iraq and triggered US, Iranian, Israeli, or government retaliation on Iraqi soil. It would lower if Baghdad successfully contained militia mobilisation and maintained a workable accommodation between competing domestic and foreign-backed actors.
Strategic reasoning
- Iraq’s repeated experience of invasion, insurgency, civil war, and sectarian armed conflict shows how quickly institutional disputes and external pressure can become domestic violence. Persistent competition between the government, Iran-linked militias, and other security actors sustains this vulnerability.
- The strongest escalatory signal is the reported setback to the US-backed effort to disarm Iran-linked militias, alongside claims that Iraqi groups may join a wider Iranian campaign. The key stabilising factor is that current reporting describes regional operations and political pressure rather than a confirmed new conflict on Iraqi territory.
- Fighting involving Iraqi forces or militias abroad would not itself constitute the target event; the relevant threshold is sustained armed violence, invasion, or cross-border attack reaching Iraq.
Critical indicators
- On September 6, reporting on the continuing Iran war said Iraq was among the seven OPEC+ members meeting as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz affected regional oil exports. Iraq’s exposure to the crisis increases the consequences of escalation around its borders and economic channels.
- Recent reporting said Iraq remains an economic and financial channel for Iran amid US sanctions, while a US-backed effort to disarm Iran-linked militias has encountered a setback. The combination of external pressure and armed groups with independent power raises the chance that political confrontation could become violence inside Iraq.
- A report published in the current news cycle alleged that Iran was coordinating Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias for a multi-front campaign against Israel. This is not itself a new Iraqi conflict onset, but Iraqi militia involvement could create a direct pathway for retaliation on Iraqi territory.
Probability trend
How the Iraq estimate has moved
Probability22.2%21.8%21.3%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Iraq compared with its neighbours and region
Iraq ranks number 16 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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