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Silfio country intelligence

Iraq

High risk9.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Iraq flag

Iraq facts

Population

47.02M

GDP

$254.37B

Currency

IQD

Capital

Baghdad

Land area

438.32K km²

Official languages

Arabic, Aramaic, Sorani

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Iraq

NEWS

Conflict probability

9.5%

Model base probability

6.3%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Iraq, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • The ongoing US-Iran conflict is escalating rapidly, with multiple strikes and counterstrikes in the region, increasing regional instability.
  • Iraq, sharing borders with both Iran and Syria, is strategically important and has recently signed an agreement with Syria to restore an oil pipeline, indicating its involvement in regional energy and security dynamics.
  • The US-Iran war escalation and the reimposition of a naval blockade on Iran’s ports raise the risk of spillover violence or new armed conflict on Iraqi soil, either through direct cross-border attacks or internal destabilization triggered by regional tensions.

Critical indicators

  • US airstrikes on Iran following Iranian attacks that killed US service members in Jordan.
  • Iraq and Syria signing an agreement to restore an oil pipeline as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Iraq

Updated July 20, 2026

abc.net.au · 1 day ago

Iran war: US launches fresh strikes to 'swiftly punish' Iran after deadly attack on service members - as it happened - ABC News

The US has resumed new strikes on Iran after two of its service members were killed in Jordan.

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npr.org · 2 days ago

The U.S. and Iran blow past red lines as they lurch back toward all-out war

The United States and Iran exchanged strikes aimed at infrastructure and military targets on Saturday as their battle over the Strait of Hormuz intensified.

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cnbc.com · 2 days ago

Iraq and Syria sign agreement to restore oil pipeline that would provide alternative to Strait of Hormuz

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is visiting the U.S. this week. He met with President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

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