Georgia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Georgia is 8.3%, a high risk. The main long-run supports are Georgia’s history of internal conflict and interstate war, unresolved territorial disputes, and the continued vulnerability created by Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where Russia has played a decisive military and political role.

Recent reporting supplied for 7 September 2026 contains no specific new battlefield incident or mobilisation requiring emphasis. The principal relevant actors remain the Georgian state, Russia, and the de facto authorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia; tensions involving these parties could create an onset on Georgian territory even though fighting by Georgian forces abroad would not qualify.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or security friction around the disputed territories develops into sustained armed violence. Risk would rise most clearly with Russian or separatist military movements, a cross-border attack, or clashes involving Georgian forces inside Georgia; it would fall with durable security arrangements, effective incident-management channels, and reduced military pressure around the territories.