Georgia

Georgia has a 6.1% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within 12 months, representing a high risk. The main long-run drivers are the 1990s conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia, and the unresolved territorial status of both regions. Russian forces remain present in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, while Georgia’s political polarisation and limited economic and military capacity constrain its ability to manage a renewed crisis.

Recent reporting reviewed contains no confirmed new armed confrontation on Georgia’s territory. The strongest relevant actors remain Russia, the Georgian government, and the de facto authorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The October 17 report mentioning “Georgia” concerned the US state and its Senate election, not the country, and provides no direct conflict signal. No prediction market was available.

The largest uncertainty is whether pressure around the occupied territories, domestic political confrontation, or a wider Russia-West crisis could produce miscalculation. Risk would rise with Russian or separatist military mobilisation, a serious incident along the administrative boundary lines, or Georgian moves to retake territory; sustained dialogue, restraint, and effective incident-management mechanisms would lower the immediate danger.