www.middleeastmonitor.com · 2 days ago
Pakistan worried about being drawn into US-Iran conflict after Houthis attack Saudi Arabia – Middle East Monitor
Creating new perspectives since 2009 · July 17, 2026 at 3:51 pm
Read sourceSilfio country intelligence
Saudi Arabia
High risk7.5% annual probabilityrising trend
Saudi Arabia facts
Population
36.97M
GDP
$1.28T
Currency
SAR
Capital
Riyadh
Land area
2.15M km²
Official languages
Arabic
Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.
Risk assessment
Silfio assessment of Saudi Arabia
Conflict probability
7.5%
Model base probability
3.2%
Risk category
High
Strategic reasoning
- The highest-volume prediction markets indicate a significant near-term risk of military action involving Saudi Arabia and Yemen, with Saudi military action against Yemen at 19.0% (3-day horizon) and 25.0% (11-day horizon), and Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia rising from 13.0% to 28.0% over the same periods. These markets have volumes ranging from $3,385 to $7,367, showing strong crowd conviction.
- Annualizing the 25% probability over 11 days implies a substantially higher 12-month risk of conflict onset, roughly estimated around 70-80% if extrapolated linearly, though this is an upper bound. Given the short horizon and the nature of the question (military action, which counts as armed conflict onset), this strongly suggests elevated risk beyond the structural baseline of 3.25%.
- News corroborates heightened tensions: repeated Houthi attacks on Saudi territory, depletion of Saudi missile defenses, and regional instability linked to the US-Iran conflict increase the likelihood of new conflict on Saudi soil. Pakistani troop deployments near the border further indicate escalation risk.
- The structural model underestimates near-term risk as it does not capture recent escalations. The markets reflect immediate expectations of new military engagements, which qualify as new armed conflict on Saudi territory under the scope.
Critical indicators
- Prediction markets showing 25% probability of Saudi military action against Yemen within 11 days (July 31, 2026).
- Prediction markets showing 28% probability of Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia within 11 days (July 31, 2026).
Related coverage
Latest articles about Saudi Arabia
Updated July 20, 2026
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