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Silfio country intelligence · ARE
United Arab Emirates
1.4% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
11.51M
GDP
$552.32B
Currency
AED
Capital
Abu Dhabi
Land area
83.6K km²
Official languages
Arabic
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on UAE territory is 1.4%, a low risk. The UAE’s strong state capacity, substantial security resources, effective institutions, and absence of sustained domestic armed conflict support a relatively resilient security environment. Its main vulnerability is regional exposure: it is closely involved in Gulf security and has previously operated militarily in Yemen.
Recent reporting shows heightened regional danger involving Iran, the United States, shipping routes, and Yemen. On October 18, Iran said it had a “new operational plan” if U.S. attacks resumed, while maritime authorities reported strikes on vessels near Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the UAE. Separate reporting said the UAE was backing anti-Houthi forces in southern Yemen, with Saudi air support. These activities are outside UAE territory but involve principal regional actors and increase exposure to retaliation.
The largest uncertainty is whether regional hostilities expand from maritime and neighbouring theatres into direct attacks on UAE territory. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed Iranian, Houthi, or other armed-group strike inside the UAE; sustained de-escalation among Iran, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE would reduce that pressure. A Polymarket contract puts an 11.0% probability on Iran targeting the UAE by October 31, but its partial scope is separate context rather than a direct measure of the 12-month onset risk.
Strategic reasoning
- The UAE’s high state capacity, security institutions, and lack of sustained internal armed conflict make a new domestic insurgency, rebellion, or coup unlikely. Its history of military involvement abroad matters mainly by creating external exposure, not by constituting conflict on UAE territory.
- The strongest escalation signal is the reported maritime violence near the UAE and Iran’s warning of a new operational plan. The clearest stabilising factor is the UAE’s ability to protect critical infrastructure and coordinate closely with Saudi Arabia and other security partners.
- Fighting involving UAE-backed forces in Yemen remains an external conflict and does not itself meet the target event. It matters because Houthi or Iranian retaliation could create a pathway to a new armed attack inside the UAE.
Critical indicators
- On October 18, 2026, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported attacks on vessels operating near Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the UAE, while Iran warned of a “new operational plan” if U.S. attacks resumed. The incident raises concern about escalation reaching Gulf-linked shipping and infrastructure.
- Recent reporting said the UAE resumed financial backing for anti-Houthi forces in southern Yemen, with Saudi Arabia providing air cover. This is fighting outside UAE territory, but it increases the UAE’s visibility as a regional participant and its potential exposure to retaliation.
- A Polymarket contract on whether Iran will target the UAE by October 31 carries an implied 11.0% probability, with 6,578 in volume. Its partial scope and near-term horizon make it contextual market information rather than a direct forecast of new conflict onset over 12 months.
Probability trend
How the United Arab Emirates estimate has moved
Probability1.6%1.5%1.4%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in United Arab Emirates.
Regional context
United Arab Emirates compared with its neighbours and region
United Arab Emirates ranks number 96 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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