Silfio country intelligence

United Arab Emirates

Moderate risk4.5% annual probabilitystable trend

Population

11.51M

GDP

$552.32B

Currency

AED

Capital

Abu Dhabi

Land area

83.6K km²

Official languages

Arabic

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of United Arab Emirates

NEWS

Conflict probability

4.5%

Model base probability

2.0%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

No prediction markets exist for UAE armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
The news indicates a highly volatile regional security environment with escalating US-Iran conflict, repeated Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states (including Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan), and UAE’s strong condemnation of these attacks, signaling heightened regional tensions.
UAE is not currently experiencing an internal armed conflict, but the spillover effects of the US-Iran war and Iran’s hostile actions in the Gulf raise the risk of a new interstate armed conflict onset on UAE territory, such as missile or drone strikes or proxy attacks.
The UAE’s strategic importance, proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, and alignment with US and regional partners increase its exposure to potential new conflict on its soil.

Critical indicators

Renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan (2026-07).
Collapse of US-Iran ceasefire and resumption of military actions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupting regional security.
UAE’s public condemnation of Iranian attacks and alignment with US and regional partners amid escalating Gulf tensions.

Related coverage

Latest articles about United Arab Emirates

Updated July 20, 2026

www.scmp.com · 2 days ago

UAE’s Hormuz workaround tries to bypass its trillion-dollar economic heart | South China Morning Post

New terminals offer insurance, but analysts say securing trade ultimately relies on lasting peace, not just pouring concrete.

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europeantimes.news · 16 hours ago

The United Arab Emirates After Gaza: How Mohammed bin Zayed Is Reshaping the Middle East's Balance of Power - news

For decades, power in the Middle East was measured by the size of armies, the number of tanks, or the strength of military deterrence. While these factors&h ...

Read source

financialafrik.com · 1 day ago

Middle East War: Towards a Global Conflagration and the Specter of a Water Apocalypse - Financial Afrik

Headed by Adama Wade and his team of 20 journalists, Kapital Afrik offers strategic and financial information to executives and managers. The aim of Kapital Afrik is to provide financial and political news, give priority to human entrepreneurial experiences, lend life to economic policies, ...

Read source