United Arab Emirates

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on UAE territory is 1.4%, a low risk. The UAE’s high economic capacity, capable security institutions, and absence of a recent domestic insurgency or civil war strongly support resilience. Its limited population concentration and effective state control further reduce the likelihood of sustained internal armed violence.

Recent reporting shows continued regional exposure rather than fighting inside the UAE. On 5 September, clashes between Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi-backed government forces reportedly killed at least 81 people near territory bordering the Red Sea chokepoint. Separate coverage of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz noted that 2.5 million barrels per day were shipped through routes outside the strait, including Fujairah, making UAE infrastructure relevant to wider Iran-related tensions. Iran, the Houthis, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are the principal actors shaping this environment.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional escalation would reach UAE territory through missile, drone, maritime, or sabotage attacks, rather than remaining confined to Yemen or wider waters. A direct attack on UAE territory or critical infrastructure, or evidence of an organised domestic armed network, would raise risk; sustained de-escalation involving Iran and regional governments would lower the immediate threat.