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Silfio country intelligence

Oman

Moderate risk4.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Oman flag

Oman facts

Population

5.49M

GDP

$109.6B

Currency

OMR

Capital

Muscat

Land area

309.5K km²

Official languages

Arabic

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Oman

NEWS

Conflict probability

4.5%

Model base probability

2.2%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Oman, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news reports indicate a sharp escalation of military tensions and attacks in the Gulf region, including missile and drone strikes by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on US radar installations within Oman’s territory.
  • The Strait of Hormuz, adjacent to Oman, is a critical chokepoint and has become a focal point of US-Iran conflict, with repeated strikes and counterstrikes escalating the risk of spillover violence.
  • Although there is no direct evidence of a new internal conflict or coup within Oman, the presence of foreign military strikes on Omani soil significantly raises the risk of a new interstate armed conflict onset.

Critical indicators

  • Iran’s Revolutionary Guards missile and drone strikes on US radar systems in Oman (July 2026)
  • Escalation of US-Iran military exchanges around the Strait of Hormuz, including attacks on commercial shipping and infrastructure in the Gulf region

Related coverage

Latest articles about Oman

Updated July 20, 2026

discoveryalert.com.au · 2 days ago

U.S. Strikes Iran: Hormuz Shipping Disruptions Explained 2026

Explore how U.S. strikes on Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are paralyzing global oil flows and maritime trade.

Read source

www.ibtimes.com · 3 days ago

Oil Producers Are Trying to Leave the Strait of Hormuz Behind. Iran Has Other Plans. | IBTimes

Governments across the Gulf are accelerating pipeline construction after Iran and its regional allies intensified attacks on commercial shipping, but experts say pipelines remain exposed to military strikes from Tehran.

Read source

indianexpress.com · 1 day ago

Why Iran hardliners are alleging a ‘coup’ after the US agreement | World News - The Indian Express

Hardliners allege President Masoud Pezeshkian and top negotiators are staging a "soft coup" after the US deal, exposing growing cracks within the Islamic Republic, reported CNN.

Read source