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Silfio country intelligence · OMN
Oman
0.9% annual probability
Population
5.49M
GDP
$109.6B
Currency
OMR
Capital
Muscat
Land area
309.5K km²
Official languages
Arabic
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Omani territory is 0.9%, a minimal risk. Oman’s long record of domestic stability, capable state institutions, and limited recent conflict exposure support this level. The principal historical exception, the Dhofar rebellion, ended in 1975, while Oman has generally maintained effective territorial control and avoided involvement in wars fought on its soil.
The strongest current danger is regional escalation involving Iran, the United States, and forces operating around the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman. US strikes on three IRGC-linked Iranian oil carriers and Iran’s threats of a more painful response raise the possibility of spillover, but the reported strikes occurred near maritime and Iranian targets rather than on Omani territory. Oman’s defence ties with the United States and India provide additional external support.
The largest uncertainty is whether Iran’s retaliation expands from maritime pressure and attacks on US-linked assets into strikes against Oman or targets within its territory. Polymarket prices a partial-scope question on Iran targeting Oman by September 30 at 7.5%, and one by September 15 at 3.1%. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed attack in Oman; sustained regional de-escalation and continued protection of Omani territory would lower the immediate danger.
Strategic reasoning
- Oman’s effective institutions, security control, and absence of sustained domestic armed violence reduce the likelihood of a new internal conflict. The historical Dhofar rebellion remains the main precedent but ended decades ago.
- US strikes on Iranian vessels in the Gulf of Oman and Iran’s retaliation threats are the clearest escalatory signal, although the reported fighting remains outside Omani territory and therefore is not itself a qualifying onset.
- Oman’s defence relationships with Washington and New Delhi, including proposed US F-16 support, strengthen deterrence and crisis-management capacity.
Critical indicators
- On September 5–6, 2026, US forces reportedly disabled three IRGC-linked Iranian oil carriers near Kharg Island, in the Persian Gulf, and Gulf of Oman after Iranian missile attacks on US warships. The exchange heightens the possibility of regional spillover but does not report fighting on Omani soil.
- On September 6, Polymarket implied 7.5% odds that Iran would target Oman by September 30, with a 3.1% price for the narrower September 15 contract. These contracts have partial scope and are separate market context rather than evidence of an attack.
- On September 6, the United States approved a potential $188 million package to sustain Oman’s F-16 fleet, while an Indian National Defence College delegation held defence discussions in Oman. Both developments reinforce external security cooperation.
Probability trend
How the Oman estimate has moved
Probability0.9%0.9%0.8%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 4
Sep 7
Date
Regional context
Oman compared with its neighbours and region
Oman ranks number 114 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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