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Silfio country intelligence · OMN
Oman
1.3% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
5.49M
GDP
$109.6B
Currency
OMR
Capital
Muscat
Land area
309.5K km²
Official languages
Arabic
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Oman is 1.3%, a low risk. Oman has strong state capacity, comparatively effective institutions, and a long record of domestic stability since the Dhofar insurgency ended in 1975. Its neutral diplomacy, control of security institutions, and limited history of interstate fighting on Omani territory also support a low likelihood of new internal or external conflict.
Recent reporting places Oman near a serious regional security crisis. UKMTO recorded 10 maritime attacks in the week ending Friday, with most since early July occurring offshore near Oman, while fighting and tensions involving Iran have affected the Strait of Hormuz. These incidents raise exposure for Omani waters and ports but do not themselves constitute armed conflict on Omani territory. Oman remains a diplomatic and commercial actor, with foreign naval activity increasing around the Gulf of Oman.
The largest uncertainty is whether regional hostilities expand from maritime attacks and pressure around Hormuz into strikes on Omani land, ports, or security forces, or instead remain contained offshore. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed attack inside Oman; sustained ceasefire arrangements, continued Omani mediation, and safe operation of its ports would support the current low-risk assessment.
Strategic reasoning
- Oman’s last major internal conflict, the Dhofar insurgency, ended in 1975, and the state has since maintained strong control over its territory. This history and institutional capacity make a new insurgency, coup, or sustained domestic armed confrontation unlikely.
- Maritime attacks near Oman and the wider Iran-related crisis are the strongest escalatory signals, but offshore incidents and foreign forces operating nearby are not a new conflict onset on Omani territory. Oman’s neutrality and diplomatic channels remain important stabilising factors.
Critical indicators
- In the week ending Friday, UKMTO reported 10 attacks on shipping and said one vessel sank; CBS reported that most attacks since early July occurred off Oman. This increases exposure around Omani waters without establishing fighting on land.
- In October, South Korea considered expanding the Cheonghae unit’s mission from the Gulf of Aden into the Gulf of Oman and adding maritime-patrol surveillance near Hormuz. The move reflects heightened regional insecurity and greater foreign military presence around Oman.
- On March 26, satellite imagery reportedly showed nearly twice as many vessels at Sohar port as in December, before the Iran war began. The concentration of shipping underscores Oman’s economic exposure, while Polymarket assigned a 10.0% chance to Iran targeting Oman by November 30, a separate market signal rather than evidence of an attack.
Probability trend
How the Oman estimate has moved
Probability1.3%1.2%1.1%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Oman.
Regional context
Oman compared with its neighbours and region
Oman ranks number 99 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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