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Silfio country intelligence · LBN
Lebanon
12.2% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
5.85M
GDP
$25.97B
Currency
LBP
Capital
Beirut
Land area
10.45K km²
Official languages
Arabic, French
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Lebanon faces a 12.2% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within 12 months, representing a high risk. The country’s history of civil war, recurrent Israel–Hezbollah wars, sectarian political competition, weak state capacity, and limited economic resources leave it vulnerable to renewed violence. Hezbollah’s autonomous military role has repeatedly constrained Beirut’s ability to control escalation.
Recent reporting shows direct Israel–Hezbollah talks continuing after the war that began on March 2, while Israel maintains a presence in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah rebuilds political and financial capacity. President Joseph Aoun is seeking French and wider international help to prevent a security vacuum after any UN peacekeeping change. Beirut’s revocation of Bank Saderat Iran’s licence also places the government under pressure from both Washington and Hezbollah.
The largest uncertainty is whether diplomacy can produce a durable southern security arrangement and contain Hezbollah’s armed networks. Risk would rise with renewed Israeli strikes, Hezbollah attacks, a failed withdrawal or peacekeeping transition, or clashes over confiscated explosives; it would fall if talks secure a monitored ceasefire, restore state authority in the south, and prevent retaliatory violence.
Strategic reasoning
- Lebanon’s conflict history, sectarian fragmentation, weak institutions, and Hezbollah’s independent armed capacity make escalation difficult for the state to prevent. The current Israel–Hezbollah war is context rather than a new onset, but its unresolved aftermath preserves pathways to fresh fighting on Lebanese territory.
- The strongest escalatory signals are Israel’s continued southern presence and reports that Hezbollah is restoring its support networks. The strongest stabilising signal is Beirut’s active diplomacy with Israel, the United States, France, and other international actors to arrange security mechanisms.
- The central risk is miscalculation during the transition in southern Lebanon. A security vacuum or confrontation over weapons could trigger new domestic or cross-border violence even if existing hostilities formally subside.
Critical indicators
- On October 16, reporting described political division over explosives confiscated from Hezbollah; the group said they were intended for use against Israel, while some Lebanese figures feared assassination plots. The dispute illustrates how contested armed assets could produce internal violence.
- On October 18–19, President Joseph Aoun sought French assistance to prevent a security vacuum in southern Lebanon if UN peacekeepers withdraw, while France discussed an international presence with Beirut. The request highlights the fragility of arrangements in an area repeatedly contested by Israel and Hezbollah.
- On October 19, Polymarket assigned 87.5% to Israeli military action against Lebanon that day, with 90.5% for October 28 and 75.0% for October 31. These partial-scope markets reflect expectations of near-term military activity, although such activity must be distinguished from the separate question of a new conflict onset.
Probability trend
How the Lebanon estimate has moved
Probability12.2%12.2%12.2%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Lebanon.
Regional context
Lebanon compared with its neighbours and region
Lebanon ranks number 28 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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