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Silfio country intelligence

Lebanon

High risk8.5% annual probabilityrising trend
Lebanon flag

Lebanon facts

Population

5.85M

GDP

$25.97B

Currency

LBP

Capital

Beirut

Land area

10.45K km²

Official languages

Arabic, French

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Lebanon

MARKET

Conflict probability

8.5%

Model base probability

3.5%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • The highest-volume prediction market (Polymarket, $1.95M volume) shows a 0.9% probability that Israel will withdraw from Lebanon by July 31, 2026, implying a 99.1% chance Israel remains in Lebanon at least through that date. This suggests ongoing Israeli military presence and potential for conflict.
  • The probability of withdrawal rises slowly over the year but remains low (12.5% by December 31), indicating a sustained risk environment rather than imminent de-escalation.
  • Annualizing the near-term low withdrawal probability implies a significant risk of conflict onset within 12 months, as Israeli presence correlates with potential for new armed conflict on Lebanese soil.
  • News corroborates heightened tensions: Iran urging Hezbollah to prepare for wider conflict, recent US-Iran strikes escalating regional hostilities, and the withdrawal of UNIFIL peacekeepers removing a stabilizing force in Lebanon.

Critical indicators

  • Iran instructing Hezbollah and allies to prepare for wider conflict involving Israel
  • UNIFIL peacekeepers withdrawing from Lebanon, reducing peacekeeping presence
  • Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon remains high with low probability of withdrawal by year-end

Related coverage

Latest articles about Lebanon

Updated July 20, 2026

timesofisrael.com · 2 days ago

Iran said to tell Hezbollah, allies to prepare for wider conflict, which could rope in Israel | The Times of Israel

8 reported killed in overnight US strikes on Iran; IRGC says it targeted US aircraft, radar systems in Jordan and Qatar; Kuwait says water plant hit, troops hurt in drone attacks

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timesofisrael.com · 2 days ago

July 18: Washington reportedly sending more warplanes to Middle East as fighting with Iran intensifies | The Times of Israel

IDF says explosive that killed Lebanese soldier was planted by Hezbollah * Liberman predicts effort by Netanyahu camp to use Shin Bet against election rivals and media outlets

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foreignpolicy.com · 2 days ago

Lebanon’s UNIFIL Peacekeepers Are Heading for the Exits

As UNIFIL leave Lebanon, it’s not clear who—if anyone—will replace it.

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