Lebanon

Lebanon faces a 10.1% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within 12 months, a high risk. The country’s history of civil war, repeated Hezbollah–Israel confrontations, foreign intervention, weak state authority, severe economic strain, and the presence of heavily armed non-state actors leave it vulnerable to renewed internal or interstate escalation.

Recent reporting shows that violence is already continuing in southern Lebanon despite a ceasefire. Israeli demolitions and strikes have persisted around Froun and Nabatieh, Hezbollah has reportedly launched a drone toward Israeli troops, and Israel says it controls the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge. President Joseph Aoun has appealed for international action after at least seven people were killed. These developments primarily represent continuation of existing hostilities, while increasing the risk of a distinct wider onset.

The largest uncertainty is whether current exchanges remain geographically limited or trigger broader Hezbollah–Israel combat, stronger domestic mobilisation, or direct regional intervention. Polymarket assigns 47.5–79.5% probabilities to Israeli military action on several September dates, while pricing a withdrawal from Lebanon at 1.1% by September 30 and 4.5% by year-end. Further Israeli expansion, a major Hezbollah attack, or state fragmentation would raise risk; a durable ceasefire and verified withdrawal would lower it.