Palestine

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Palestine is 3.3%, representing a moderate risk. Palestine’s long history of war, occupation, insurgency, recurrent intifadas, and fragmented political authority leaves limited capacity to prevent local violence from widening. Weak institutions, economic strain, territorial division between Gaza and the West Bank, and unresolved Israeli-Palestinian claims remain important underlying drivers.

Recent reporting shows persistent violence in the West Bank involving Israeli settlers, Israeli forces, and Palestinian residents. On October 17, six people, including four women and a child, were reportedly injured in Ma’in village near Hebron; another report cited 40 attacks on farmers, land, and crops during a 12-hour period. These incidents, alongside the October 18 attack on a European diplomatic and church delegation near Taybeh, demonstrate high friction but are principally part of violence already underway rather than a clearly separate new conflict onset.

The largest uncertainty is whether repeated localized attacks trigger organized armed retaliation, broader Palestinian mobilization, or direct Israeli military escalation. Risk would rise if violence spread across multiple West Bank areas or linked with armed-group operations; it would fall with sustained protection for civilians, restraint by Israeli forces and settlers, and effective Palestinian and international mechanisms that contain local incidents.