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Silfio country intelligence

Azerbaijan

Moderate risk3.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Azerbaijan flag

Azerbaijan facts

Population

10.25M

GDP

$75.94B

Currency

AZN

Capital

Baku

Land area

86.6K km²

Official languages

Azerbaijani, Russian

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Azerbaijan

NEWS

Conflict probability

3.5%

Model base probability

2.8%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Azerbaijan, so the adjustment relies solely on recent news signals.
  • Azerbaijan is currently maintaining a delicate geopolitical balance, engaging both Russia and Ukraine diplomatically, which suggests efforts to avoid escalation on its own territory.
  • Despite unresolved disputes with Armenia and regional tensions, recent news highlights ongoing peace narratives and diplomatic engagement rather than active conflict or imminent escalation.
  • However, the broader regional environment is tense, with ongoing conflicts nearby (Russia-Ukraine war, US-Iran hostilities), which could increase spillover risks or opportunistic conflict on Azerbaijan’s soil.

Critical indicators

  • Azerbaijan signed a two-year consultation plan with Russia shortly after backing Ukraine, indicating geopolitical balancing (Kyiv Post).
  • Russian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers promote a regional peace narrative despite unresolved disputes with Armenia (Horizon Weekly).
  • Ongoing regional conflicts including Russia-Ukraine war and US-Iran hostilities increase regional instability risk.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Azerbaijan

Updated July 20, 2026

kyivpost.com · 2 days ago

Opinion: Why Azerbaijan Is Locking In a 2-Year Plan With Russia After Backing Ukraine

Days after Ilham Aliyev backed Ukraine, Azerbaijan signed a two-year consultation plan with Moscow, underscoring Baku’s delicate geopolitical balancing act.

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news.az · 3 days ago

Why is Greece allowed what Azerbaijan is not? Europe’s sanctions double standard | News.az

Relations between Europe and Russia since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine have clearly revealed who is who within the European Union. For three yea...

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en.apa.az · 2 days ago

Minister: Azerbaijan calls for peaceful resolution of Russia-Ukraine conflict

"We expressed our deep concern over the ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine," Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said at a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow, APA reports

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