Silfio country intelligence · AZE
Azerbaijan
16.0% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
10.25M
GDP
$75.94B
Currency
AZN
Capital
Baku
Land area
86.6K km²
Official languages
Azerbaijani, Russian
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Azerbaijan faces a 16.0% probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory within 12 months, making this a high risk. The principal long-run drivers are its history of interstate war with Armenia, unresolved border and territorial questions, and the legacy of the 2020 war and Azerbaijan’s 2023 operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Strong state capacity and military resources can deter attack, but they also sustain an active security competition.
Recent reporting shows continued military and diplomatic positioning rather than a confirmed new conflict. Azerbaijan and NATO discussed military-education cooperation, while Baku’s reported plans to purchase Russian gas indicate continued efforts to balance relations with competing external powers. Armenia remains the central potential interstate actor, while Russia and NATO shape the wider security environment.
The largest uncertainty is whether Azerbaijan-Armenia negotiations produce durable border arrangements or instead break down amid renewed claims, military pressure, or incidents. Risk would rise most clearly after a cross-border exchange, mobilisation, or breakdown in talks; sustained implementation of a settlement and effective border monitoring would lower the prospect of onset.
Strategic reasoning
- Azerbaijan’s repeated wars with Armenia, including the 2020 conflict and the 2023 recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh, leave a recent precedent for rapid escalation and unresolved sensitivities along the frontier.
- NATO military-education engagement may improve professional capacity and external ties, while Russian energy cooperation preserves a channel with Moscow; neither development removes the central Armenia-related flashpoints.
Critical indicators
- In recent reporting, Azerbaijan and NATO discussed military-education cooperation, a development that strengthens defence links and signals continued attention to military preparedness.
- At Russian Energy Week, Azerbaijan reportedly announced renewed gas purchases from Gazprom despite sanctions. The move highlights Baku’s balancing among Russia and Western partners, relevant to the external environment around any Armenia-related crisis.
- Recent Azerbaijani official messaging continues to frame the 44-day Patriotic War as a defining national victory. That narrative reinforces the political importance of territorial security and the consequences of renewed border confrontation.
Probability trend
How the Azerbaijan estimate has moved
Probability16.0%16.0%16.0%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Azerbaijan.
Regional context
Azerbaijan compared with its neighbours and region
Azerbaijan ranks number 22 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
Related coverage
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