Armenia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Armenia is 1.4%, a low risk. Armenia’s history of war with Azerbaijan, unresolved border and territorial issues, limited military depth, and exposure to pressure from stronger neighbours keep the possibility of renewed fighting above minimal levels. Domestic political tensions and dependence on shifting external security relationships add to the country’s vulnerability.

Recent reporting presents mixed but consequential developments. Washington reportedly helped Yerevan and Baku reach a preliminary peace agreement, suggesting diplomatic channels remain active. At the same time, reports citing satellite imagery allege that Azerbaijan has expanded and fortified a position in Armenia’s Syunik region, while debate over Russia’s 102nd military base in Gyumri highlights changing regional alignments. Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, and the United States are the principal actors.

The largest uncertainty is whether the preliminary agreement produces enforceable border arrangements and restraint on the ground. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed Azerbaijani incursion, sustained exchanges of fire, or a breakdown in negotiations; credible implementation of the peace agreement and verified disengagement along contested areas would lower the prospect of a new onset.