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Silfio country intelligence · ARM
Armenia
1.2% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
3.09M
GDP
$29.24B
Currency
AMD
Capital
Yerevan
Land area
29.74K km²
Official languages
Armenian
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Armenia is 1.2%, a low risk. The main enduring drivers are Armenia’s recent history of interstate war with Azerbaijan, unresolved territorial and border issues, military vulnerability, and the continuing importance of security institutions and alliances.
Recent reporting reviewed provides no dated development indicating an imminent onset on Armenian territory. The principal actors remain Armenia and Azerbaijan, with Russia, the European Union, and other regional powers influencing deterrence, border management, and diplomatic negotiations. No prediction market is available for Armenia.
The largest uncertainty is whether diplomatic engagement can contain disputes while border arrangements remain politically sensitive. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed armed incident crossing into Armenia, sustained troop mobilisation near the border, or collapse of active mediation; it would be reinforced at the current low level by continued negotiations, functioning border mechanisms, and credible external deterrence.
Strategic reasoning
- The 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war and the September 2023 Azerbaijani operation in Nagorno-Karabakh show that disputes can escalate into major fighting, while Armenia’s limited military and economic capacity increases its exposure.
- No current report identifies a new cross-border attack or sustained domestic armed mobilisation. Continued diplomacy involving Armenia, Azerbaijan, and external mediators is the clearest stabilising factor, and fighting outside Armenia’s territory does not itself constitute a new onset there.
Critical indicators
- In September 2023, Azerbaijan’s military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh displaced the region’s Armenian population and ended the de facto Armenian administration there. It remains relevant because unresolved Armenia-Azerbaijan security arrangements continue to shape border risks.
- The 2020 six-week Armenia-Azerbaijan war demonstrated the potential for interstate fighting to reach Armenian territory, while subsequent diplomatic and border negotiations have provided channels for containing renewed escalation.
Probability trend
How the Armenia estimate has moved
Probability1.2%1.2%1.2%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Armenia.
Regional context
Armenia compared with its neighbours and region
Armenia ranks number 103 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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