Israel

The 12-month probability is 4.6%, a moderate risk. Israel’s long history of interstate wars, intifadas, terrorism, and repeated conflict with Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and other armed groups leaves persistent pathways to a new outbreak. Strong state capacity, military preparedness, and effective security institutions help contain threats but do not remove the danger of sudden escalation.

Recent reporting highlights continuing regional confrontation involving Israel and Iran, alongside serious settler violence in the West Bank. On October 17–18, Israeli settlers attacked European diplomats and a US-based photojournalist near Taybeh, while the US ambassador called the assault “terror.” These incidents are serious indicators of internal instability, but fighting already underway is not itself a new-onset event.

The largest uncertainty is whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds and whether West Bank violence remains localized or expands into sustained armed confrontation. Prediction markets assign 87.5% probability to the ceasefire continuing through October 31, but 47.5% through December 31; this partial-scope context points to meaningful near-term escalation sensitivity. Renewed cross-border strikes reaching Israel, or organized armed clashes inside the country, would raise risk; durable ceasefire enforcement and arrests of violent actors would lower it.