Israel

The live 12-month probability is 5.3%, a high risk. Israel’s extensive history of interstate wars, insurgencies, terrorism, and repeated cross-border escalation sustains exposure to a new armed-conflict onset on its territory. Strong military capacity, effective institutions, and advanced warning and interception capabilities provide important protection, but Israel’s location among active conflict zones leaves limited strategic depth.

Recent reporting shows Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon after Hezbollah drones targeted Israeli troops, while a report citing intelligence sources alleges that Iran is considering a coordinated attack involving Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and other allied groups. These developments concern existing regional confrontations, but they could create a distinct new episode if attacks reach Israel from another front. Prediction markets show 84.5% odds that the Israel-Iran ceasefire lasts through September 30 and 70.5% through October 31; they also price a 13.5% chance of an Israel-Turkey clash before 2027.

The largest uncertainty is whether ceasefires and deterrence contain these confrontations or whether Iran-aligned groups coordinate sustained attacks on Israeli territory. Risk would rise most clearly after a mass-casualty attack or direct, repeated Iranian or allied strikes inside Israel; durable ceasefires and restrained responses would lower the likelihood of a new onset.