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Silfio country intelligence

Israel

High risk12.0% annual probabilityrising trend
Israel flag

Israel facts

Population

10.12M

GDP

$610.78B

Currency

ILS

Capital

Jerusalem

Land area

20.77K km²

Official languages

Arabic, Hebrew

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Israel

MARKET

Conflict probability

12%

Model base probability

4.5%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • High-volume prediction markets indicate a significant risk of new military actions involving Israel, including a 40.5% probability that Israel will strike 4 countries in 2026 and a 20.0% probability of a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026. These imply elevated interstate conflict risk on Israeli territory or its immediate surroundings.
  • Near-term markets show a 30.5% chance Israel will close its airspace by July 31, 2026, suggesting heightened military alert and potential escalation. Also, markets show a 14.5% chance of Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026, and 12.5% chance of an Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027, indicating multiple potential conflict fronts.
  • The structural model baseline (4.5%) is low and does not incorporate recent escalations. The market-implied probabilities, especially for strikes on multiple countries and ground offensives, suggest a substantially higher risk of new armed conflict onset within 12 months.
  • News corroborates the market signals: ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iran, Iranian warnings of full-scale invasion, IDF preparing for broader conflict, and escalating violence in Gaza and Lebanon indicate a volatile environment with high potential for new conflict onset on Israeli soil.

Critical indicators

  • Prediction market: 40.5% chance Israel strikes 4 countries in 2026; 20.0% chance of major ground offensive in Gaza by end of 2026.
  • News: Iran instructing Hezbollah and allies to prepare for wider conflict; IDF on war footing after Iranian attacks; ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iran and escalating regional tensions.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Israel

Updated July 20, 2026

www.aljazeera.com · 2 days ago

EU urges Israel to halt settlement expansion as settlers attack children | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera

Pressure is growing within the EU to sanction Israel for its illegal settlements and violence against Palestinians.

Read source

www.timesofisrael.com · 2 days ago

Iran said to tell Hezbollah, allies to prepare for wider conflict, which could rope in Israel | The Times of Israel

8 reported killed in overnight US strikes on Iran; IRGC says it targeted US aircraft, radar systems in Jordan and Qatar; Kuwait says water plant hit, troops hurt in drone attacks

Read source

jpost.com · 5 hours ago

IDF chief: Israel prepared to respond after Iranian shrapnel lands in Eilat | The Jerusalem Post

IDF sources told The Jerusalem Post that the Sunday attack has shifted the military closer to war footing.

Read source