All countries

Silfio country intelligence

Yemen

Critical risk22.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Yemen flag

Yemen facts

Population

41.77M

GDP

$21.61B

Currency

YER

Capital

Sana'a

Land area

527.97K km²

Official languages

Arabic

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Yemen

MARKET

Conflict probability

22%

Model base probability

13.1%

Risk category

Critical

Strategic reasoning

  • High-volume prediction markets show elevated probabilities of Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen within the next two weeks (19.0% by July 24, 25.0% by July 31), indicating a significant near-term risk of interstate conflict onset.
  • Israel-related markets show lower probabilities and volumes, suggesting less immediate risk from Israel, but the Saudi markets dominate in volume and probability, anchoring the adjustment upward.
  • The markets resolve within days to weeks, so annualizing these short-term probabilities implies a substantially higher 12-month risk than the structural model’s 13.1%. For example, a 25% probability over 11 days annualizes to roughly 220% (capped at 100%), but given uncertainty, a moderate upward adjustment to 22% is prudent.
  • News corroborates rising tensions: renewed fighting, missile attacks by Houthis on Saudi Arabia, mass demonstrations in Yemen, and regional escalation linked to Iran’s backing of Houthi forces all point to a fragile truce and elevated risk of new conflict onset.

Critical indicators

  • Prediction markets showing 19-25% odds of Saudi military action against Yemen by late July 2026.
  • Reports of Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and renewed cross-border strikes.
  • Mass demonstrations in Yemen following escalation with Saudi Arabia signaling mobilization and rising tensions.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Yemen

Updated July 20, 2026

www.seatrade-maritime.com · 2 days ago

Piracy and Yemen escalation threaten Red Sea shipping return

The boarding of Asana and renewed fighting in Yemen raise fresh doubts over carrier plans to restore services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

Read source

cnbc.com · 3 days ago

Oil prices rise after Kuwait says Iran attacked water desalination and power plant

Oil prices rose Friday after Kuwait said Iran attacked a power and water desalination plant as fighting escalated in the Persian Gulf · Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, advanced about 4.6% to close at $88.10 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained ...

Read source

newarab.com · 1 day ago

Is Yemen sliding back towards civil war?

Escalating threats, Iran-linked tensions and renewed military posturing are raising fears Yemen’s fragile four-year truce could collapse.

Read source