Yemen

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Yemen’s territory is 11.3%, a high risk. Yemen’s prolonged civil war, fragmented authority, weak institutions, limited economic capacity, and history of intervention by Saudi Arabia and other external powers leave the country highly exposed to a distinct new front or interstate escalation, even though existing fighting itself is not counted as a new onset.

Recent reporting shows the Houthis and Saudi-backed government forces engaged in some of Yemen’s worst clashes in years. The Houthi offensive toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait, government air attacks, missile strikes near Taiz, and reported deaths exceeding 120–140 indicate intensified competition involving the Houthis, Yemen’s government, Saudi Arabia, and Iran-linked networks.

The largest uncertainty is whether the current offensive remains a continuation of Yemen’s existing war or prompts direct Saudi intervention or another geographically distinct confrontation. Polymarket prices Saudi military action against Yemen at 27.0% by September 15 and 31.5% by September 30, while the clearest risk-raising development would be confirmed Saudi strikes or cross-border fighting; a durable halt to the offensive and renewed truce arrangements would lower the prospect of a new onset.