Jordan

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Jordan is 14.8%, representing a high risk. Jordan’s history includes the 1970–71 Black September conflict and periods of militant violence, while its position between Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia exposes it to regional spillover. Economic pressures, refugee burdens, and dependence on external support can also intensify domestic political stress.

The recent news reviewed contains no substantive Jordan-specific conflict development; the reported 17 October violence concerns protests and disorder in France, not Jordanian territory. The main relevant external actor is Iran, whose regional confrontation with Israel and other partners creates potential exposure for Jordan, although no new attack on Jordan is reported here.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional escalation would remain outside Jordan or generate a direct strike, retaliation, or sustained domestic armed mobilisation. A verified Iranian or proxy attack inside Jordan, or prolonged armed unrest involving Jordanian security forces, would raise risk; continued border control, state cohesion, and containment of regional hostilities would lower immediate escalation pressure.