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Silfio country intelligence

Jordan

High risk8.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Jordan flag

Jordan facts

Population

11.52M

GDP

$61.61B

Currency

JOD

Capital

Amman

Land area

89.34K km²

Official languages

Arabic

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Jordan

NEWS

Conflict probability

8.5%

Model base probability

4.0%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Jordan, so adjustment relies solely on recent news signals.
  • Multiple credible news sources report a significant escalation of hostilities on Jordanian soil, including Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. forces stationed in Jordan, resulting in U.S. military fatalities and missing personnel.
  • These attacks represent a direct interstate armed attack on Jordanian territory, which fits the scope of a new armed conflict onset.
  • The escalation follows the collapse of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, with ongoing retaliatory strikes, raising the risk of broader conflict involving Jordan.

Critical indicators

  • Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks on U.S. military bases in Jordan killing two U.S. service members and leaving one missing (July 2026).
  • U.S. retaliatory airstrikes on Iran following the attacks, signaling escalation and breakdown of ceasefire agreements.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Jordan

Updated July 20, 2026

www.npr.org · 1 day ago

U.S. fires on Iran after deadly attack in Jordan : NPR

Three U.S. service members were killed in action while "partner forces defended against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks," U.S. Central Command said Saturday.

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www.bbc.com · 1 day ago

Two US troops killed and one missing after Iranian attack in Jordan

Iran and the US have traded strikes as hostilities re-escalated this week, with Tehran targeting US military facilities across the Gulf region.

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www.nytimes.com · 2 days ago

U.S. Launches Strikes After Iranian Attack Kills 2 American Soldiers - The New York Times

The soldiers, killed in Jordan, were the first U.S. troops to die from hostile fire since an April truce. U.S. forces began retaliatory strikes early Sunday.

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