Jordan

The live 12-month probability is 15.1%, making this a high risk. Jordan’s close alignment with the United States, its hosting of foreign military forces, and its position between Israel, Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia expose it to regional escalation. Although the kingdom has generally maintained strong state control, its history includes the 1970–71 Black September conflict and repeated pressure from neighbouring wars, refugee flows, and armed groups.

Recent reporting describes repeated Iranian drone and missile strikes affecting military bases in Jordan that host U.S. forces, making Iran the principal external actor and the United States and Jordan the key parties exposed. The reports frame Jordan’s alliance with Washington as a reason it could be drawn directly into the Iran-U.S. confrontation. These developments are relevant to a new conflict onset on Jordanian territory, beyond fighting conducted by Jordanian forces abroad.

The largest uncertainty is whether strikes remain limited incidents around foreign military facilities or develop into sustained attacks, retaliation, and broader domestic violence. Risk would rise if Iran widened targeting toward Jordanian cities, infrastructure, or government forces; it would fall if the Iran-U.S. confrontation de-escalated and attacks on bases ceased. Prediction markets separately show 76.0% for Iran targeting Jordan by September 30 and 55.5% by September 15, both partial-scope contracts.