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Silfio country intelligence

Türkiye

High risk8.0% annual probabilitystable trend
Türkiye flag

Türkiye facts

Population

85.88M

GDP

$1.6T

Currency

TRY

Capital

Ankara

Land area

783.56K km²

Official languages

Turkish

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Türkiye

MARKET

Conflict probability

8%

Model base probability

4.4%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • The highest-volume prediction market (Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027) implies a 12.5% probability over ~5.5 months. Annualizing this: (12.5% / 5.5) * 12 ≈ 27.3% over 12 months, which is significantly above the structural baseline of 4.4%. This strongly suggests elevated risk of interstate armed conflict involving Turkey.
  • The Greece x Turkey military engagement market shows a lower but non-negligible 5.5% probability over the same period, annualizing to about 12%, reinforcing regional interstate tensions.
  • Other markets related to U.S. sanctions and F-35 rejoining have lower volumes and indirect relevance to conflict risk, so they are secondary signals.
  • News signals indicate ongoing regional tensions (e.g., Turkish defense ministry statements on Greek Cypriot paramilitary legacy, Erdoğan’s neo-Ottoman rhetoric perceived as threatening Israel), which corroborate the elevated risk of interstate conflict onset.

Critical indicators

  • Polymarket Israel x Turkey military clash market at 12.5% odds resolving end 2026
  • Turkish defense ministry’s recent statements on Greek Cypriot paramilitary legacy and regional tensions

Related coverage

Latest articles about Türkiye

Updated July 20, 2026

dailysabah.com · 2 days ago

How July 15 coup attempt strengthened Türkiye's independence | Column

A decade after the failed coup attempt, the country continues to strengthen its institutions, security and strategic autonomy

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jinsa.org · 3 days ago

Turkey's Rising Role Busting U.S. Sanctions - JINSA

Last month’s U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was supposed to open the Strait of Hormuz to any and all shipping. Yet Iran became the only regional country able to ship out its energy without threat of interference. The United States may now be putting an end to that untenable status ...

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cyprus-mail.com · 3 days ago

Turkish defence ministry: We have not forgotten Eoka’s bloody legacy | Cyprus Mail

Turkey’s defence ministry on Friday released a video in which it decried the “bloody legacy” of Greek Cypriot paramilitary group Eoka, two days after the 52nd anniversary of the Greek military junta-backed coup on the island and three days before the anniversary of the subsequent Turkish ...

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