Bulgaria

Bulgaria’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory is 1.0%, a low risk. Its membership in NATO and the European Union, functioning state institutions, and comparatively strong security partnerships reduce the likelihood of an invasion, insurgency, or sustained domestic armed violence. Bulgaria’s main experience of modern warfare was the Russo-Turkish War of 1877–1878, rather than a recent pattern of recurring internal conflict.

Recent reporting shows Bulgaria positioning itself within diplomatic debate over the war in Ukraine, not entering direct hostilities. President Iliana Yotova, speaking with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, said on 7 September 2026 that the conflict had no military solution and should end through diplomacy. Russia and Ukraine remain the principal external actors relevant to regional escalation, while NATO provides Bulgaria’s central deterrent and security framework.

The largest uncertainty is whether the war in Ukraine could generate spillover, coercion, or an accidental incident affecting Bulgarian territory, or whether domestic political tensions could become violent. Risk would rise most clearly after a cross-border strike, military incident, or sustained armed mobilisation; it would fall with continued diplomatic engagement and intact NATO deterrence.