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Silfio country intelligence

Bulgaria

Low risk2.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Bulgaria flag

Bulgaria facts

Population

6.43M

GDP

$130.78B

Currency

BGN

Capital

Sofia

Land area

110.88K km²

Official languages

Bulgarian

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Bulgaria

NEWS

Conflict probability

2.5%

Model base probability

1.6%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Bulgaria, so adjustment relies solely on recent news signals.
  • Recent political developments indicate rising geopolitical tensions: Bulgaria’s government has publicly distanced itself from supporting Ukraine’s war effort, signaling a shift away from the Western coalition, which could increase diplomatic friction with Russia and NATO allies.
  • Calls from opposition parties to convene the National Security Council and heightened rhetoric around geopolitical risks suggest growing domestic political instability and concern over Bulgaria’s security environment.
  • The Interior Minister’s emphasis on countering political terrorism and organized crime at an international forum points to concerns about potential internal security threats that could escalate into armed conflict.

Critical indicators

  • Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev’s announcement that Bulgaria will not fund or join the coalition supporting Ukraine’s war effort.
  • Democratic Bulgaria’s call for the President to convene the Consultative Council for National Security to address geopolitical risks.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Bulgaria

Updated July 20, 2026

www.armstrongeconomics.com · 3 days ago

Bulgaria Refuses To Fund Zelensky’s Endless War | Armstrong Economics

Bulgaria has now become the latest country to step away from Europe's proxy war with Russia. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev announced that his country

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sofiaglobe.com · 3 days ago

Statements by Bulgaria’s PM and Foreign Minister on Ukraine further fuel controversy

From denial of a contradiction in government policy on Ukraine, to alarmist talk of nuclear weaponry and a “storm in a teacup”, statements by Prime Minister Roumen Radev and Foreign Min…

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sofiaglobe.com · 3 days ago

PM Radev: ‘No contradiction’ in Bulgarian government’s position on the war in Ukraine

There is no contradiction in the government’s position regarding the war in Ukraine, Bulgarian Prime Minister Roumen Radev told reporters in Parliament on July 17. This follows the publicatio…

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