Albania

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Albania is 0.9%, representing a minimal risk. Albania’s post-communist history includes serious political unrest, including the 1997 nationwide crisis, but the country has since developed stronger state institutions, security capacity, and European political and economic ties that generally contain domestic confrontation.

The strongest current evidence is the escalation of student-led anti-government protests in Tirana during 14–18 October 2026. Demonstrators demanding Prime Minister Edi Rama’s resignation have fought riot police, used petrol bombs, and damaged or burned offices and banks; at least 120 police officers and 32 protesters were reportedly injured. Rama’s government, the police, protesters, and the European Commission are the principal actors, with Brussels urging accountability and proportionate force.

The main uncertainty is whether the protests remain episodic urban unrest or develop into organised, sustained armed violence involving wider political or criminal networks. Risk would rise if clashes spread nationwide, security forces fragment or use lethal force, or armed groups exploit the disorder. It would fall most clearly through a negotiated political process, credible accountability for abuses, and a sustained end to violent confrontations.