Serbia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Serbia’s territory is 1.1%, a low risk. Serbia’s history of involvement in the Balkan wars, unresolved disputes linked to Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and persistent political tensions provide a higher starting risk than in countries without recent conflict experience. State capacity and functioning institutions nevertheless constrain the likelihood of sustained domestic armed violence.

Recent reporting centres on the Serbian government’s handling of Ratko Mladić’s death and planned burial with state and military honours. The episode has drawn condemnation from Bosnia and Herzegovina, human-rights groups, and EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, who cancelled a planned visit. It signals continuing sensitivity around wartime nationalism and relations with neighbours, but does not itself indicate armed mobilisation or violence on Serbian territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether nationalist disputes, Kosovo-related tensions, or political confrontation could produce sustained violence involving organised armed actors. Risk would rise most clearly with attacks or clashes inside Serbia, mobilisation by Serbian or opposition-linked armed groups, or direct escalation around Kosovo; it would be supported at this level by continued state control, functioning security institutions, and the absence of reported armed clashes. No prediction market is available for Serbia.