North Macedonia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in North Macedonia is 1.4%, a low risk. The country’s main long-run vulnerability is its history of internal armed violence, including the 2001 conflict between state forces and ethnic Albanian insurgents. Political polarisation, ethnic divisions, and limited economic capacity remain relevant background pressures, although the Ohrid Framework Agreement, established institutions, and NATO membership provide important safeguards.

Recent reporting says North Macedonia has delivered 13 packages of military aid to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion, according to Ukraine’s foreign minister Andriy Sybiha. This demonstrates involvement in an external war but does not constitute fighting on North Macedonian territory or indicate a new domestic conflict. No prediction market is available for this country.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or ethnic tensions could again develop into organised armed violence, particularly if institutions lose legitimacy or communal relations deteriorate. Risk would rise with sustained clashes, organised mobilisation, or a breakdown in the Ohrid political settlement; it would fall with continued cross-community governance, effective security institutions, and stable NATO-backed deterrence.