Bosnia and Herzegovina

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Bosnia and Herzegovina is 2.0%, a low risk. The main long-run factors are the country’s history of the 1992–95 war, unresolved constitutional and ethnic divisions, and fragile state institutions. These are balanced by the absence of a current nationwide armed organisation, the continuing international presence, and the economic and political costs of renewed war.

Recent reporting reviewed provides no indication of armed mobilisation or violence involving Bosnia and Herzegovina’s principal political actors, including state institutions, Republika Srpska authorities, or neighbouring Serbia and Croatia. The available Bosnia-linked report concerns the return of the Spectre computer vulnerability affecting JIT engines, rather than security developments or conflict activity. No prediction markets were found.

The largest uncertainty is whether political confrontation over the distribution of state authority could move from institutional obstruction into organised violence, particularly if outside actors became directly involved. Risk would rise most clearly with armed incidents, mobilisation by domestic security or paramilitary forces, or a breakdown of international deterrence; sustained political compromise and functioning security institutions would lower the likelihood of onset.