Croatia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Croatia is 0.8%, a minimal risk. Croatia’s history of armed conflict during the 1990s remains relevant, but the country now has established state institutions, substantial economic capacity, and security ties through NATO and the European Union that reduce the likelihood of renewed internal or interstate fighting.

Recent reporting shows localized disorder in Split involving Hajduk supporters, including clashes with police and arrests after an antisemitic rally disrupted the 15 October match against Ajax. This is evidence of militant street activity and communal tension, but the reported actors are football ultras and police rather than organised armed groups capable of sustaining a conflict. No neighbouring state or domestic faction is reported to be preparing attacks on Croatian territory.

The main uncertainty is whether extremist networks or nationalist mobilisation could broaden beyond isolated incidents, particularly if violence were paired with political or communal confrontation. Risk would rise if organised armed groups emerged, attacks spread across cities, or a regional dispute brought foreign forces into Croatian territory; it would remain lower if arrests, prosecutions, and effective policing contained the Split disturbances.