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Silfio country intelligence · SVN
Slovenia
0.3% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
2.13M
GDP
$79.65B
Currency
EUR
Capital
Ljubljana
Land area
20.27K km²
Official languages
Slovene
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Slovenia is 0.3%, a minimal risk. Slovenia has strong institutions, high economic capacity, EU and NATO membership, and no recent history of sustained internal armed violence. Its 1991 independence conflict was brief, and the country has since maintained effective state authority and peaceful political competition.
Recent reporting reviewed concerns Slovenia hosting Switzerland in a UEFA Nations League match at Ljubljana’s Stožice Stadium, rather than security deterioration or activity by armed domestic actors. No neighbouring state, separatist movement, insurgent group, or extremist organisation is identified as preparing violence on Slovenian territory. No prediction market is available for Slovenia.
The main uncertainty is whether an unforeseen regional crisis, severe institutional breakdown, or externally driven confrontation could create a new armed incident inside Slovenia. Risk would rise most clearly with a cross-border attack, organised armed mobilisation, or sustained political violence; it would remain lower if Slovenia’s institutions, alliances, and peaceful domestic environment continue to function.
Strategic reasoning
- Slovenia’s brief 1991 Ten-Day War was followed by decades without civil war, insurgency, or sustained political violence. EU and NATO membership, capable institutions, and limited domestic armed-group activity strongly constrain pathways to a new onset.
- Current reporting shows ordinary international sporting activity in Ljubljana, with Slovenia scheduled to host Switzerland at Stožice Stadium. It provides no indication of escalation by state, neighbouring, or non-state actors on Slovenian territory.
Critical indicators
- In reporting reviewed on 19 October 2026, Slovenia’s UEFA Nations League fixture against Switzerland was associated with ticket sales and match arrangements at Stožice Stadium in Ljubljana. The development is consistent with normal public life and offers no conflict-related warning.
- Slovenia’s June–July 1991 Ten-Day War followed its declaration of independence but ended quickly after an agreement involving the Yugoslav authorities. The subsequent absence of sustained armed conflict supports the country’s very low likelihood of a new domestic or interstate onset.
Probability trend
How the Slovenia estimate has moved
Probability0.3%0.3%0.3%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Slovenia.
Regional context
Slovenia compared with its neighbours and region
Slovenia ranks number 162 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Central Europe
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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