Czechia

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Czech territory is 0.4%, a minimal risk. The Czech Republic has strong state capacity, effective institutions, substantial economic resources, and no recent history of civil war, insurgency, or interstate fighting on its territory since the country’s establishment in 1993.

Recent reporting places the Czech Republic among 14 countries expected to participate in an “air power coalition” supporting Ukraine, alongside Britain, Poland, the United States, France, and others. This indicates continued Czech involvement in European security assistance, but the reported activity concerns support for a war outside Czech territory and is not itself a new conflict onset at home.

The largest uncertainty is whether Russia’s war against Ukraine could widen into a direct attack on NATO territory or generate serious domestic violence through an unforeseen political or security shock. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed armed attack affecting Czech territory; it would remain lower if regional hostilities stay confined outside the country and Czech institutions continue managing security pressures effectively.