Slovakia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Slovakia is 0.5%, representing a minimal risk. Slovakia has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, or sustained domestic armed violence, and its EU and NATO membership, functioning state institutions, and established security partnerships provide substantial protection against both internal and interstate conflict.

Recent reporting describes heightened diplomatic tension rather than fighting on Slovak territory. After a drone strike near the Slovak diplomatic facility in Kyiv, Bratislava condemned Russia’s action and summoned the Russian ambassador for explanations. Slovakia has also reportedly withheld support for a 12-month extension of EU individual sanctions against Russia, making it a prominent point of disagreement within the EU, while Russia’s war remains centred in Ukraine.

The largest uncertainty is whether the wider Russia-Ukraine war could produce an accidental or deliberate spillover affecting Slovakia, including through an attack on Slovak territory or a major security incident. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed cross-border strike or sustained armed activity inside Slovakia; continued alliance coordination and the containment of hostilities within Ukraine would support the minimal level.