Ukraine

The 12-month probability is 10.8%, classified as a high risk. Ukraine’s recent history of armed conflict, Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory, contested sovereignty, and dependence on external military and economic support keep the country exposed to a new escalation involving its territory. The war that began in 2014 and expanded into a full-scale invasion in 2022 remains the central background condition, although continuation of that war is not itself counted as a new onset.

Recent evidence shows both diplomacy and serious escalation pressure. U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in Moscow and then held “substantive” talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. At the same time, Russia has intensified bombing, a Russian drone struck the office of Ukraine’s intelligence chief, and Ukraine’s General Staff said fighting continued because a ceasefire could not be implemented unilaterally.

The largest uncertainty is whether negotiations can produce a verifiable and durable ceasefire despite Moscow’s reported demands for Ukrainian neutrality and territorial concessions. A breakdown accompanied by expanded Russian strikes or a new cross-border operation would raise risk; sustained monitoring, reciprocal restraint, and credible agreement on enforcement would lower it. Prediction markets put the probability of peace talks by September 30 at 29.5%, while markets for a ceasefire by October 31 range from 5.5% to 13.5%.