Ukraine

The 12-month probability is 8.9%, representing a high risk. Ukraine’s recent history is dominated by Russia’s invasion and continuing armed conflict, while contested territory, wartime mobilisation, damaged institutions and infrastructure, and dependence on external military and economic support keep the country exposed to renewed fighting on its territory. These factors support a persistent risk of a new escalation or conflict onset distinct from fighting already underway.

Recent reporting shows heightened tension among Ukraine, Russia and the United States. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine is ready for U.S.-led negotiations, while Washington’s pause on new Russia sanctions and reported disruption to Ukraine’s Starshield access have raised concerns about Kyiv’s support. Ukraine’s large drone attacks on Russian energy facilities show continuing escalation pressure, although the strikes occurred outside Ukraine. Prediction markets place agreement on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end at roughly 9.5–13.5%, while talks by year-end are priced at 32.5%.

The largest uncertainty is whether diplomacy can produce enforceable arrangements while external backing and battlefield conditions remain unsettled. Risk would rise with a breakdown in negotiations, reduced Western support, or intensified Russian military pressure on Ukrainian territory; credible ceasefire implementation, restored support, and sustained communication among Kyiv, Washington and Moscow would lower the danger.