All countries

Silfio country intelligence

Ukraine

Moderate risk4.5% annual probabilityfalling trend
Ukraine flag

Ukraine facts

Population

38.98M

GDP

$214.23B

Currency

UAH

Capital

Kyiv

Land area

603.5K km²

Official languages

Ukrainian

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Ukraine

MARKET

Conflict probability

4.5%

Model base probability

2.4%

Risk category

Moderate

Strategic reasoning

  • The structural model baseline probability of a new armed conflict onset in Ukraine within 12 months is low at ~2.4%, but it does not incorporate recent developments.
  • High-volume prediction markets show low probabilities for peace deals or ceasefires before the end of 2026 (e.g., 20% chance Ukraine signs peace deal by end of 2026, 35.5% chance of ceasefire by end of 2026), indicating ongoing conflict risk and low likelihood of resolution.
  • Markets related to coup attempts in Ukraine show an 11.5% chance by year-end, which is a non-negligible risk of internal conflict onset.
  • The absence of markets indicating imminent peace or conflict resolution combined with ongoing missile attacks and government instability (defense minister dismissal, protests) suggest elevated instability.

Critical indicators

  • Russia’s major ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities in July 2026.
  • Ukrainian government reshuffle and dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov amid protests and military leadership tensions.
  • Prediction market indicating 11.5% chance of a coup attempt in Ukraine by December 31, 2026.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Ukraine

Updated July 20, 2026

independent.co.uk · 6 minutes ago

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russian oil depots hit after Putin launches ballistic missile attack on Kyiv | The Independent

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in · Swipe for next article

Read source

abcnews.com · 3 days ago

Ukraine's deep strikes mean 'significant change' for war, former Russian PM says - ABC News

Once one of the most powerful men in Russia, Mikhail Kasyanov now lives in exile in Latvia, his name on a Kremlin list of "extremists and terrorists."

Read source

bbc.com · 15 hours ago

Russia launches major ballistic-missile attack on Ukrainian cities

Eight people die and dozens are injured as several cities are hit by missile and drone attacks, while Kyiv continues its own assault on Russian infrastructure.

Read source