Moldova

Moldova faces a 2.3% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory, a low risk. The main long-run drivers are the unresolved Transnistria conflict, the presence of Russian forces and military infrastructure in the breakaway region, Moldova’s limited military capacity, and its exposure to pressure from the war in neighbouring Ukraine. These factors preserve a pathway to escalation, although Moldova’s institutions and international partnerships provide important constraints.

On 4 September, Moldova, Romania, and the United States began the Fire Shield military exercises in Moldova, scheduled to continue until 19 September. The drills demonstrate security cooperation and readiness involving Moldovan, Romanian, and US forces, but the reporting does not indicate that hostilities have begun or that an armed group is mobilising on Moldovan territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether regional military pressure or a crisis involving Transnistria could overcome existing deterrence and diplomatic channels. A Russian-backed incident, armed confrontation around Transnistria, or spillover from the Ukraine war would raise risk; continued negotiations, effective international engagement, and the conclusion of exercises without incident would support the current low-risk assessment.