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Silfio country intelligence

Hungary

Low risk1.8% annual probabilitystable trend
Hungary flag

Hungary facts

Population

9.51M

GDP

$246.49B

Currency

HUF

Capital

Budapest

Land area

93.03K km²

Official languages

Hungarian

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Hungary

NEWS

Conflict probability

1.8%

Model base probability

1.3%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data is available for Hungary regarding armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Recent news indicates significant political turmoil: the forced resignation of Hungary’s president Tamás Sulyok after a constitutional amendment, described as part of a purge of allies of former authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán, suggests internal political instability.
  • The rapid dismantling of Orbán’s power structure under Prime Minister Péter Magyar, while aimed at reform, carries risks of political backlash or unrest, which could escalate into internal conflict or coup attempts.
  • Although no direct signs of armed conflict or insurgency are reported, the scale of political upheaval and institutional change elevates the risk of new internal armed conflict onset beyond the structural baseline.

Critical indicators

  • Constitutional amendment ending President Tamás Sulyok’s term amid political purge (multiple sources, July 2026)
  • Rapid dismantling of Viktor Orbán’s political influence under new PM Péter Magyar, increasing political uncertainty and potential instability

Related coverage

Latest articles about Hungary

Updated July 20, 2026

www.intellinews.com · 3 days ago

bne IntelliNews - Hungarian PM flags potential conflict of interest over former foreign minister’s move to BYD

Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar said former foreign minister Peter Szijjarto's appointment at Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD would not ...

Read source

apnews.com · 1 day ago

Hungary's President Sulyok steps down after constitutional amendment | AP News

Hungary's president has signed a constitutional amendment ending his term, resolving a dispute with the new government.

Read source

nbcnews.com · 16 hours ago

Removal of Hungary’s president caps purge of Orbán allies

Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar has sought to purge allies of his authoritarian predecessor, prevailing in his effort to force out President Tamás Sulyok.

Read source