Silfio country intelligence · AUT
Austria
0.4% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
9.21M
GDP
$579.47B
Currency
EUR
Capital
Vienna
Land area
83.87K km²
Official languages
Austro-Bavarian German
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The live 12-month probability is 0.4%, placing Austria in the minimal risk category. Austria’s strong institutions, high state capacity, prosperous economy, and effective security services support a highly stable domestic environment. Since the end of the Second World War, the country has avoided civil war, insurgency, coups, and sustained armed violence on its territory.
Recent reporting provides no indication of armed mobilisation, organised domestic rebellion, or an interstate threat reaching Austrian territory. The principal relevant actors are the Austrian government and security services, alongside neighbouring European states operating within established diplomatic and security frameworks. Austria’s neutrality and its position within the European Union further support territorial stability.
The largest uncertainty would be an abrupt, externally driven crisis involving a neighbouring state or a severe breakdown in domestic political order. Risk would rise most clearly through sustained armed clashes involving Austrian authorities or organised groups on Austrian soil; it would fall further in practical terms if continued political stability, institutional control, and peaceful management of social tensions were maintained.
Strategic reasoning
- Austria’s post-1945 record of political stability, strong institutions, and absence of sustained domestic armed conflict provides the central basis for the minimal risk assessment.
- No current reporting identifies an armed group, foreign government, or domestic political movement preparing violence on Austrian territory; conflicts involving European security actors abroad do not constitute a new onset in Austria.
Critical indicators
- The Austrian State Treaty of 15 May 1955 restored the country’s sovereignty and established the post-war framework under which Austria has maintained political stability and military neutrality.
- Austria’s admission to the European Union on 1 January 1995 embedded it in dense diplomatic, economic, and legal relationships that reduce the likelihood of interstate confrontation reaching its territory.
Probability trend
How the Austria estimate has moved
Probability0.4%0.4%0.4%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Austria.
Regional context
Austria compared with its neighbours and region
Austria ranks number 140 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Central Europe
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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