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Silfio country intelligence

Qatar

High risk7.5% annual probabilityrising trend
Qatar flag

Qatar facts

Population

2.97M

GDP

$215.56B

Currency

QAR

Capital

Doha

Land area

11.59K km²

Official languages

Arabic

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Qatar

NEWS

Conflict probability

7.5%

Model base probability

1.5%

Risk category

High

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Qatar armed conflict risk, so adjustment relies solely on recent news signals.
  • Multiple recent missile attacks by Iran on Qatar territory, including a direct strike on Al Udeid Air Base with casualties, indicate a significant escalation of interstate violence on Qatari soil.
  • Qatar’s air defenses have intercepted missile barrages, but the presence of missile debris injuring civilians confirms active armed hostilities impacting Qatar.
  • The ongoing US-Iran conflict is expanding into Gulf states, with Qatar caught in the crossfire, raising the risk of a new armed conflict onset on its territory beyond the structural baseline.

Critical indicators

  • Iranian missile strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar injuring four people including a child (July 17, 2026).
  • Multiple intercepted Iranian missile attacks targeting Qatar’s territory and infrastructure over recent days.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Qatar

Updated July 20, 2026

www.thehindu.com · 3 days ago

West Asia war updates: Iran Guards say attack on U.S. base in Qatar meant to 'punish aggressor' - The Hindu

Follow The Hindu LIVE for the latest updates on the West Asia war as the U.S. strikes key Iranian targets on Qeshm Island and near Bandar Abbas, close to the Strait of Hormuz.

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timesofindia.indiatimes.com · 3 days ago

US-Iran war Highlights: Kuwait says it is retaliating after Iran strikes hit oil, power and desalination plants - The Times of India

The US-Iran conflict is entering a dangerous new phase, with Washington expanding its military campaign beyond conventional military targets and tigh

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forbes.com · 2 days ago

Sheikh Hamad's Real Legacy for Qatar Was Optionality, Now Under Strain

Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani turned Qatar's gas into a web of dependencies that kept a small state hard to isolate. The test his successors inherit is whether those alternatives still hold when several are stressed at once.

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