Qatar

The live probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Qatar within 12 months is 0.5%, representing a minimal risk. Qatar’s strong state capacity, wealthy economy, effective institutions, and absence of a sustained domestic insurgency support resilience. Its small territory and strategic role as a diplomatic and military hub nevertheless leave it exposed to external escalation.

Recent reporting shows direct security pressure from Iran and hostile rhetoric from Israel. Qatar says Iranian missiles and drones have been intercepted and has documented attacks and injuries through UN records, while Benjamin Netanyahu defended Israel’s 2025 strike on Doha and called Qatar a hostile state. These incidents establish a serious security environment, while existing attacks are context rather than a new onset.

The main uncertainty is whether regional confrontations remain limited strikes or develop into sustained attacks on Qatar. The clearest upward-risk development would be another confirmed Iranian or Israeli attack causing significant casualties or prolonged disruption; sustained diplomacy, effective interception, and restraint by Tehran, Jerusalem, and Doha would support the minimal level. Prediction markets separately imply 18.5% for an Iranian targeting event by September 15 and 29.0% by September 30, with partial scope.