Estonia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Estonian territory is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. Estonia’s past experience of invasion and Soviet occupation remains relevant, but its strong institutions, capable economy, EU and NATO membership, and absence of a sustained domestic armed conflict provide substantial protection against both internal and external onset.

Recent reporting centres on political and procurement controversy rather than violence. Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur resigned after a €70 million, EU-funded deal for 155mm shells for Ukraine was terminated amid delivery delays and alleged quality concerns. A Ukrainian AN-26 military aircraft also arrived at Ämari on 5 September after transiting Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia; these developments concern defence cooperation and support for Ukraine, not fighting in Estonia.

The main uncertainty is whether Russia’s wider war against Ukraine could generate a deliberate or accidental spillover into NATO territory, or whether domestic political strains could become violent. A confirmed cross-border attack, serious military incident involving Estonia, or organised armed mobilisation inside the country would raise risk; continued NATO deterrence and containment of regional tensions would support the minimal level.